Dell (DELL): Assessing Valuation After a 190% Year‑to‑Date Share Price Surge
Dell Technologies (DELL) has quietly become a long term winner, with the stock up about 190% year to date and more than tripling over the past 3 years despite recent pullbacks.
See our latest analysis for Dell Technologies.
At around $138.91, Dell’s recent 7 day share price return of just over 4% comes after a softer 30 day patch. However, the 3 year total shareholder return above 250% shows the longer term momentum story is still very much intact.
If Dell’s run has you thinking about what else might compound over the next few years, this could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks.
But with revenue and earnings still growing and the stock trading at a sizable discount to analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, is Dell quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next wave of growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 14.7% Undervalued
Compared with Dell Technologies last close at $138.91, the most followed narrative sees fair value meaningfully higher, implying the market is still catching up.
Dell is shifting its business mix toward more IP rich and margin accretive storage and services through modernization and efficiency improvements, which is likely to expand operating margins and long term earnings power. Improved capital allocation (for example, ongoing buybacks, dividends) and a now fully deleveraged balance sheet provide flexibility for shareholder returns and investment in high growth adjacencies such as edge computing and telecom, supporting EPS growth and long term total return.
Want to see how steady revenue gains, rising margins and shrinking share count all combine into that higher fair value estimate? The full narrative unpacks the specific growth runway, profit mix shift and valuation multiple that underpin this target, and how they are expected to evolve over the next few years.
Result: Fair Value of $162.87 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, hardware commoditization and ongoing dependence on a cyclical PC business could squeeze margins and derail the upbeat, AI-driven earnings story.
Find out about the key risks to this Dell Technologies narrative.
Build Your Own Dell Technologies Narrative
If you see Dell’s story differently or simply prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Dell Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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