Stock Market Today: Dow Slips, S&P 500 Futures Gain Amid Mixed Trade—Carvana, Confluent, Toll Brothers In Focus

U.S. stock futures were fluctuating on Monday after Friday’s advance. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.

President Donald Trump's administration plans to unveil a long-awaited $12 billion financial rescue package on Monday aimed at U.S. farmers struggling under the combined weight of low market prices and the impact of tariff policies.

Investors await a crucial decision from the Federal Reserve later this week, along with the earnings report of Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), Campbell’s Co. (NASDAQ:CPB), and others.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.16% and the two-year bond was at 3.58%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing an 87.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates during its December meeting.

Futures	Change (+/-)
Dow Jones	-0.02%
S&P 500	0.09%
Nasdaq 100	0.15%
Russell 2000	0.32%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.12% at $686.52, while the QQQ advanced 0.23% to $626.90, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Stocks In Focus

Carvana

• Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) jumped by 8.81% following its inclusion in the S&P 500 index on Friday.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that CVNA maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking. Additional performance details are available here.

Confluent

• Confluent Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) gained 31.59% on the reports that International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) was close to acquiring the data software company for $11 billion

• It maintains a stronger price trend over the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term, with a moderate growth ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Toll Brothers

• Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) was 0.55% higher as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings at $4.89 per share on revenue of $3.30 billion after the closing bell.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings shows that TOL maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate quality score. Additional information is available here.

Phreesia

• Phreesia Inc. (NYSE:PHR) was up 1.95% as it is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of 2 cents per share on revenue of $120.05 million.

• It maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long term, with a moderate growth ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Compass Minerals International

• Compass Minerals International Inc. (NYSE:CMP) was unchanged as analysts expect it to report a loss of 23 cents per share on revenue of $223.50 million after the closing bell.

• CMP maintained a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

Cues From Last Session

Communication services and information technology stocks closed higher, contrasting with utilities, health care, and energy stocks, which recorded the biggest losses on Friday.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Nasdaq Composite	0.31%	23,578.13
S&P 500	0.19%	6,870.40
Dow Jones	0.22%	47,954.99
Russell 2000	-0.38%	2,521.48

Insights From Analysts

Mohamed El-Erian sees a U.S. economy defined by a stark contrast between robust consumer behavior and a deteriorating labor market.

While he notes in his Substack post that U.S. stocks are performing well—knocking on the door of all-time highs—and that consumer sentiment and corporate earnings remain strong, he warns that the labor market is “flashing yellow.”

He points to data showing weakening labor demand and rising wage insecurity as significant concerns beneath the market's “placid surface.”

Going forward, El-Erian views the Federal Reserve's policy path as a primary driver, specifically regarding the “how” rather than the “what” of interest rate decisions.

While a 25 basis point cut in December appears priced in, he expects the market to scrutinize the decision for signs of a “hawkish cut” or internal dissent. He observes that investors are already turning cautious about future easing, assigning low probability to an immediate follow-up cut in January.

Ultimately, El-Erian anticipates a shift away from coordinated global policy toward greater dispersion, creating a complex environment where the Fed must balance its dual mandate with financial stability goals.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;

• On Monday, no data is scheduled to be released.
• On Tuesday, November’s NFIB optimism index data will be out by 6:00 a.m., and the delayed October Job openings report will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• On Wednesday, the delayed third-quarter employment cost index report will be out by 8:30 a.m., and the FOMC’s interest rate decision, along with November’s monthly U.S. federal budget, will be released by 2:00 p.m. ET.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• On Thursday, the initial jobless claims data for the week ending Dec. 6 will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET, along with the September U.S. trade deficit data.
• On Friday, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak at 8:00 a.m., whereas Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at 8:30 a.m. ET. September’s wholesale inventories will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Commodities, Gold, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.80% to hover around $59.60 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.29% to hover around $4,209.41 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,381.6 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.03% lower at the 98.9590 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 3.14% higher at $91,953.16 per coin.

Asian markets closed mixed on Monday as Japan's Nikkei 225, China’s CSI 300, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose. Whereas, India’s NIFTY 50, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Australia's ASX 200 indices fell. European markets were mixed in early trade.

Read Next:

• Wall Street Bull Says Apple Is Ready To Explode — 26% Rally Seen As iPhone 17 And AI Upgrade Cycle Kick In

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock