Baby Boomers Are Set to Release 13.9 Million Homes Over The Next Decade, But First-Time Buyers May Get Little Relief

Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation are expected to release 13.9 million homes back to the market between 2026 and 2036, but most of that supply will bypass first-time buyers.

A study released by Realtor.com on Monday found that starter homes have a 70.7% 10-year retention rate, the highest of any segment, meaning only 0.38 million starter homes will be released over the full decade, averaging just 38,000 a year, or 3.2% of current starter-home listings. The study is based on 2014-2024 American Community Survey data and Realtor.com listing and sales records.

The report calls this shift the “Generational Housing Succession” — the wave of inventory expected as older homeowners exit homeownership through death, a move to care, or downsizing. It said 2026 marks a key inflection point, since this is the year the oldest Baby Boomers turn 80, and the youngest Silent Generation members have already passed that age, a threshold after which homeownership rates begin a steeper decline.

Why Starter Homes Barely Move

The report attributed the low release rate to starter-home owners being more likely to own their homes mortgage-free, since smaller loans get paid off sooner. Meanwhile, family homes will account for 9.9 million of the total release, or 71.2%, with a 61.2% retention rate. Large homes will see the biggest relative impact, with 3.6 million released against a 63.6% retention rate, representing 67.2% of current large-home listings if the full release reaches the market.

The report said the softening from this supply shift “will be real,” but uneven, concentrated in family and large homes rather than the starter segment where first-time buyers compete most.

A Deeper Affordability Gap

Even where starter-home supply does grow slightly, the report said it won’t meaningfully help affordability, since starter-home sales have already fallen 24.7% below pre-pandemic norms while median prices have climbed roughly $118,000, or 65.2%, above pre-pandemic levels over the same period.

That squeeze echoes other recent warnings. A separate Zillow analysis found starter homes now cost at least $1 million in a record 242 U.S. cities, up from just 80 in February 2020. Compounding the pressure, Realtor.com Senior Economist Joel Berner has said a softening labor market is making it harder for first-time buyers to save for down payments at all, calling it “kind of a double whammy” alongside elevated mortgage rates.

Disclaimer: This content was produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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