U.S. stock futures were higher on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, following Tuesday’s lower close.
Investors await the inflation data ahead of the opening bell. Morningstar reports that economists estimate the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, while core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% monthly and hold steady at 2.4% annually.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday it would be “appropriate” to raise rates “a bit further” before year-end to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, while adding that her view will depend on incoming data. President Donald Trump said Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the liquefied natural gas from the proposed Alaska LNG project for the next 20 years, though Reuters reported the agreement’s detailed terms were not immediately clear and Taiwan’s government had not formally confirmed Trump’s figures.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 5.20%, and the 2-year Treasury bond yielded 4.77% at the last check. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool projections show markets pricing in a 21.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates after its October meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 0.29% |
| S&P 500 | 0.16% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.01% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.27% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket trading on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.17% at $779.32, while the QQQ advanced 0.013% to $743.67.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow down over 100 points. Energy, communication services and utilities led, while health care, financials and industrials lagged.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | -0.35% | 51,670.10 |
| S&P 500 | -0.02% | 7,805.45 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.15% | 27,204.38 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.40% | 2,783.37 |
Professor Jeremy Siegel, senior economist to WisdomTree and emeritus professor of finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said rising real rates can signal stronger growth and he upgraded his equity view, writing that the economy still looks strong even as the market holds near all-time highs amid higher bond yields.
Siegel said he still expects the Fed to hold rates at its October meeting unless inflation data are “dramatically different from expectations,” while adding that he would not completely rule out another 25 or even 50 basis point increase later this year. He said bank deposits are still growing faster than what would be consistent with 2%–3% inflation and that the yield curve is steeper than its 40-year average, which he said are not signs of an economy that requires monetary easing.
On long-term equity returns, Siegel wrote that with the S&P 500 trading around 19 times earnings, the inverse P/E suggests roughly a 5.5% long-term real return, and he raised his estimate of long-term real equity returns to approximately 5.5%–6.5%. He said, “Higher rates are not necessarily bearish for stocks if those rates reflect stronger productivity and economic growth.”
Siegel said equities can continue to move higher if yields stabilize and growth expectations remain intact, and he flagged a risk he is monitoring: “The real danger would be a sudden technological breakthrough that makes a large portion of the current spending on data centers and compute obsolete.” He added, “But there is no evidence of that today.”
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on Wednesday.
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.12% to hover around $94.25 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.09% to hover around $4,151.25 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.02% lower at the 102.1566 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 0.75% higher at $83,727 per coin.
Asian markets were lower on Wednesday, as Australia’s ASX 200, India’s Nifty 50, South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices fell. European markets were higher in early trading.
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