Tesla's Flying Roadster Sends Delivery Odds Tumbling Despite Spectacular Demo

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) finally sent its long-awaited Roadster flying Thursday night, but prediction market traders grew sharply less confident that customers would receive one anytime soon.

On Polymarket, the odds of Tesla delivering a Roadster by the end of 2027 plunged from 33% ahead of the unveiling to around 10% Friday.

The reversal followed a spectacular demonstration featuring SpaceX-developed thrusters, midair flips and a claimed zero-to-60 mph time of just 0.81 seconds. But Elon Musk also announced that production would not begin until 2028.

Musk’s 2028 Promise Collides With a 2027 Bet

“When do you want to get it to customers?” Tesla engineering chief Lars Moravy asked during Thursday’s unveiling.

“We enter production in 2028,” Musk replied. “Actually.”

“Actually, for real,” Moravy echoed.

Musk gave a production target, not a delivery date. With manufacturing scheduled for 2028, Tesla would have to beat its own timetable to satisfy Polymarket’s 2027 contract.

The market has attracted only around $5,300 in trading, meaning relatively small trades can have an outsized impact on the odds.

Nine Years of Waiting for Tesla’s Roadster

Tesla first unveiled the second-generation Roadster in November 2017, promising production in 2020.

Nearly nine years and multiple missed deadlines later, the company is still accepting $50,000 reservations without guaranteeing a delivery date.

Tesla’s reservation agreement says the vehicle remains under development, its final price has not been settled, and the company “cannot guarantee when your vehicle will actually be delivered.”

Thursday’s flying prototype also differs from what ordinary customers can expect.

The invitation-only Rocket version is not approved for public-road use, while Tesla’s standard Performance version lacks the thrusters used in the aerial demonstration.

Deepwater’s Gene Munster described the unveiling as “an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers.”

For investors, the Roadster is primarily a technology showcase rather than a major expected sales driver.

Tesla shares surged more than 4% in Friday’s premarket trading before surrendering those gains and falling below Thursday’s closing price.

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