Citi Upgrades Galaxy, Gemini, Names Circle, Bullish as Top Crypto Picks

Citi on Monday upgraded its ratings of Galaxy (NYSE:GLXY) and Gemini (NASDAQ:GEMI) and named Circle (NYSE:CRCL) and Bullish (NYSE:BLSH) its top cryptocurrency equity picks ahead of Q3 earnings.

Simultaneously, the bank downgraded Securitize despite its upbeat outlook on tokenization.

Citi Director of Digital Assets Equity Research Pete Christensen told CoinDesk’s Public Keys that the bank remains bullish on tokenization broadly but wanted a more balanced risk-reward entry point for Securitize specifically. 

He pointed to lock-up expiry thresholds at $12.50, $15 and $17.50 that unlock sponsor shares and could introduce short-term supply pressure.

“We still don’t exactly know how unit economics are going to evolve,” Christensen said, flagging uncertainty over how much issuers will ultimately pay for tokenization services. 

The real opportunity, he argued, centers on collateral mobility rather than retail ownership perks, since institutions currently sit overcollateralized just to avoid operational errors.

Circle tops Citi’s list with a $243 price target, well above consensus. Three factors drive that call, according to Christensen:

• Compliant platform: positions Circle as a trusted settlement partner
• Liquidity position: gives it a head start other stablecoin issuers lack
• Arc settlement network: opens doors in cross-border payments, real-world asset settlement, and agentic commerce

“I think there’s an incredible addressable opportunity,” he said.

Why Strategy Remains a Tougher Call for Citi

MSCI’s plan to classify Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) as non-operating, making it ineligible for global indexes, didn’t surprise Citi. 

“We called it out on our last note,” Christensen said, adding that the investors interested in Strategy tend to want amplified Bitcoin exposure rather than index tracking.

Citi’s base case applies a 1.25x multiple to net asset value, built on its macro team’s 12-month Bitcoin forecast of $113,000 and an expected 6% to 7% Bitcoin yield. 

Christensen flagged 2026 as a negative-yield year for Strategy, since the company built up cash reserves and sold Bitcoin at unfavorable prices during the summer drawdown. He said the key question now is whether that yield generation resumes in 2027.

Why Macro Flows Still Matter Heading Into Earnings

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed nearly $1 billion over two weeks as hot inflation data revived rate-hike expectations, with Ether ETFs losing a similar amount over three weeks.

Avalanche Treasury Co. CEO Bart Smith told CoinDesk that Bitcoin now trades as a pure macro asset tied to liquidity expectations, while Ethereum behaves more as a hybrid bet on tokenization growth relative to rivals like Solana and Avalanche.

Smith compared the current tokenization moment to the early ETF industry, which faced similar skepticism from incumbents before 2008 proved the structure’s resilience.

“Tokenization is just a way to say that we’re accepting that crypto rails have benefits,” he said.

Photo via Shutterstock