Dan Ives Says Anthropic Could Eventually Be Worth $3 Trillion Despite Its $80.7 Billion Loss — Insists AI Revolution Is Only in Its ‘Third Inning’
Noted analyst and Yorkville Ives Partner and Senior Managing Director Dan Ives dismissed concerns that Anthropic’s anticipated $1.5 trillion initial public offering could signal the peak of the artificial intelligence investment boom, despite the company’s staggering $80.7 billion first-half loss and mounting concerns over AI spending.
Ives Sees Strong Appetite Despite Massive Losses
"It’s the third inning," Ives said during a CNBC interview from Abu Dhabi, estimating that the AI revolution remains roughly 15% complete. "We’re going to go through these white-knuckle moments. This is not a top. This is not a bubble."
Anthropic’s IPO filing revealed that its first-half net loss widened to $80.7 billion, including approximately $72 billion in noncash accounting charges tied to convertible financing instruments. Revenue reached $16.3 billion, while operating losses narrowed to $693 million. Second-quarter revenue surged 1,368% year over year.
Ives expects initial investor appetite around $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion, below earlier expectations approaching $2 trillion. He suggested Anthropic could eventually command a $2 trillion–$3 trillion valuation, depending on its performance, but stressed that investors would scrutinize its growth trajectory and backlog.
Anthropic IPO Could Reassure AI Investors
Ives said investors should exercise caution at a $2 trillion valuation but could find a $1.5 trillion entry point attractive. "I think at two trillion, you’re not an assertive buyer," he said. However, he expects stronger demand at a lower valuation, adding, "I’d definitely be a buyer coming out."
His remarks reinforce his earlier prediction that Anthropic’s public debut could lift the broader technology sector.
Ives also acknowledged a "white knuckle period" for investors amid CoreWeave’s mounting debt concerns, but maintained that Anthropic remained central to the broader AI investment opportunity.
AI Safety Risks Complicate Valuation Debate
Anthropic’s prospectus outlines significant risks involving model misuse, cybersecurity vulnerabilities and potentially manipulative AI behavior. The company also faces substantial infrastructure commitments as it races to expand computing capacity.
Ives described some risks as "almost out of a sci-fi movie," adding, "The risks are real. You can’t just diminish them and kind of say that they’re not a big deal." He also questioned Anthropic’s safety-first messaging amid competition from Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and OpenAI. "They could talk safety, but if they take their foot off the pedal," rivals would continue advancing, he argued.
Ives said the company’s push toward an IPO creates tension with CEO Dario Amodei’s calls for greater caution and guardrails around frontier AI development.
"I think for investors, it sends mixed signals," he said, arguing that Anthropic recognizes the urgency of commercialization amid intensifying competition. "It all comes down to monetization with guardrails," Ives added, emphasizing that investors must balance the industry’s enormous opportunities against the risks of increasingly powerful AI systems.
The debate follows broader concerns about AI infrastructure financing, but Ives remains convinced the industry has far more room to grow. "This is what I view as kind of just the next stage of the modernization phase of AI revolution taking place. But it is not the top in my opinion," he said.
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