Prediction Markets See Democrats Winning at Least 53 Senate Seats

As of noon ET on Election Day, both Kalshi and Polymarket expect Democrats to gain control of the Senate with at least 53 seats, a six-seat gain.

Kalshi has the odds of a Democratic Senate at 73%, with only two races where the market leader has less than 66% odds. Kalshi gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 62% chance of victory in Kansas, while the Iowa race is too close to call, with Republican Ashley Hinson at 51% odds and Democrat Josh Turek 52% odds.

Polymarket gives Democrats a 74% chance of winning the Senate. The same two races are the only ones with no one above 66% odds, but Polymarket currently gives Turek a 54% chance in Iowa, which would give the Democrats 54 Senate seats.

In two other races, Republican incumbents are just below 70% odds. Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts has a consensus 69% chance of defeating independent Dan Osborn, who has Democratic backing, while South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham has a 69% chance of holding her seat. No other Democratic candidates who are leading their races have less than a 70% chance of victory.

Markets See at Least 235 Democrats in Next House

Polymarket expects Democrats to win 235 seats in the House, while Kalshi sees Democrats winning 237 seats. Both give Democrats a 94% chance of winning control of the chamber.

Kalshi and Polymarket favor Democrats in key gubernatorial races in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio, and Republicans in Florida, Kansas and Texas.