Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending mixed early Thursday as Wall Street assesses the fallout from the Republican midterm rout, the potential resumption of U.S. combat operations in Iran, and shifting oil prices.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning slightly bearish for the Nov. 5 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?” contract currently reflects a 41% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing negative index futures against volatile energy markets and a tech-heavy corporate earnings slate:

• Negative Index Futures: Equity futures are tracking modestly lower across several major benchmarks. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.10%. Dow Jones futures gained slightly, up 0.37%. However, the S&P 500 futures fell 0.24%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.15%.
• Geopolitics & Oil: Following heavy Republican losses in the midterm elections, reports surfaced that the Donald Trump administration is preparing to resume major combat operations in Iran. Qatari mediators are attempting to broker a draft agreement to prevent renewed fighting, but diplomats warn that Iran’s celebration of the election results could provoke a tougher response from President Trump. Meanwhile, energy prices retreated slightly; Brent crude slipped 0.82% to $93.84 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.37% to $86.91 a barrel.
• Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s corporate calendar features highly anticipated results from ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Sony Group Corp. (NYSE:SONY), Monster Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:MNST), and Parker-Hannifin Corp. (NYSE:PH). On the economic front, preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs data, along with initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 31, are due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Bear Case and Market Outlook

LPL Financial Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder views the midterms as an important “clearing event” for markets that historically ushers in strong seasonal tailwinds. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15.1% in the 12 months following a midterm election, with all 19 periods producing positive returns.

Buchbinder notes that a divided government takes extreme tax and spending policies off the table, which could reduce Treasury supply pressure and temper interest rate volatility.

However, he cautions that state-level Democratic victories could slow the AI and data center build-out, potentially increasing regulatory pressure on semiconductor, machinery, and power generation stocks.

While banking deregulation may also slow down under a divided government, Buchbinder emphasizes that secular drivers like AI adoption and corporate earnings ultimately dictate long-term market performance far more than political configurations.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Nov. 4 Polymarket contract successfully resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $62,089 in total trading volume.

On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 1.65% to $766.81, while QQQ advanced 0.97% to $691.95. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 3.1% higher at $533.11.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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