CRU raises Indian thermal coal import forecast by 27 million tons as inventories run low

• India’s thermal coal import forecast was raised by about 27 million metric tons for November 2026-May 2027 amid critically low power-plant inventories.
• The increase comprises about 7 million tons in November-December and 20 million tons in January-May.
• Additional imports would lift monthly global seaborne demand by about 5%, supporting international prices, particularly Indonesian coal prices.
• Domestic coal-based power plants are expected to blend 5% imported coal, even without a government mandate, to avoid critically low stocks.
• Higher imports would preserve mine inventories at about 53 million tons by end-May 2027, reducing stockout risks during the monsoon.

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