PETALING JAYA: Cautious investor sentiment, if prolonged, is expected to dampen Bursa Malaysia Bhd’s financial performance this year (FY25) and analysts are already anticipating its first half performance (1H25) will likely underperform or just meet consensus estimates.
RHB Research noted that continued uncertainty over trade and monetary policy will keep prospects in the securities market weak and prolong risk-off investor behaviour while trading on Bursa’s derivatives market could soften on weaker crude palm oil prices.
As it stands, softer values and trading volumes for securities and derivatives point towards a weaker second quarter of financial year 2025 (2Q25) performance for the exchange operator when results are announced on July 29.
Data shows daily average trading value in 2Q25 had declined by 39% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 15% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to RM2.4bil while total daily average derivatives contracts traded totalled 92,000 in 2Q25, down 10% q-o-q but up 7% y-o-y.
The exchange recorded 18 new listings in 2Q25 taking total initial public offerings (IPOs) in 1H25 to 32.
Bursa’s target is 60 IPOs for the year and an IPO market capitalisation of RM40bil.
“We estimate Bursa could post 2Q25 net profit in the range of RM55mil to RM65mil, bringing the 1H25 total to between RM123 and RM133mil.
“This would be a decline of between 14% and 21% y-o-y and between 45% and 49% y-o-y on consensus FY25 net profit,” the research house stated in its latest report on the exchange operator.
The numbers could get a boost from a drop in operational expenditure if Bursa’s management scales back on non-time-sensitive spending such as marketing, it added.
“We expect Bursa to declare an interim dividend per share in the range of 14 sen to 15 sen on a 90% dividend payout-ratio assumption,” RHB Research said.
Bursa announced an 18 sen dividend per share or 94% payout in 1H24.
The research house has trimmed its FY25 to FY27 estimates for Bursa by between 1% and 2% due to the weaker trading environment.
It has a target price of RM8.05 per share on Bursa based on an unchanged 22.5 times price-to-earnings multiple target on FY26 earning per share.
At the time of writing, BMB shares were trading at RM7.66, giving it a market capitalisation of RM6.2bil.