PetDag faces possibility of reduced fuel sales volumes

PETALING JAYA: The anticipated active monitoring to curb any unauthorised sale of subsidised petrol is seen to put some pressure on PETRONAS Dagangan Bhd (PetDag), analysts say.

CGS International Research (CGSI Research) said the use of artificial intelligence (AI) with proper monitoring would curb unauthorised purchases of subsidised fuel.

“The introduction of identity card verification suggests that non-citizens will be hindered when attempting to purchase subsidised RON95 petrol, and the government has also said that in the future it will use back-end analytics to monitor and block individuals who appear to be pumping subsidised RON95 too frequently and who are suspected to be abusing their quotas on behalf of ineligible buyers,” the research house said.

It added that this could succeed in reducing unauthorised purchases and cutting RON95 sales volumes, thus putting PetDag’s sales volumes under pressure.

The research house said it does not expect fuel consumption by the average Malaysian to be negatively impacted by the introduction of the volume quota of 300 litres per month.

CGSI Research said the monthly quota of 300 litres per person appears generous in its view, noting most Malaysians would not exceed the quota.

“We reiterate our ‘reduce’ call because the government’s crackdown on unauthorised purchases of subsidised diesel in Sabah and Sarawak had caused PetDag’s sales volumes to decline by 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter this year and by 1% y-o-y in the second quarter, which puts our assumption of flat volumes for this year to 2027 at risk,” the research house said.

“A potential derating catalyst is even more downward pressure on sales volumes from the fourth quarter onwards upon the start of identity card checks on purchases of subsidised RON95,” CGSI Research added.

However, the research house said potential upsides include stronger- than-expected jet fuel sales during the Visit Malaysia Year 2026 tourism promotion campaign, and petrol sales remaining relatively stable.