Silicon Industry Branch: Demand is weak, volume and price pressure are under pressure, and the polysilicon market maintains a weak and stable pattern

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on December 3, the Silicon Industry Branch released the Polysilicon Weekly Review. The polysilicon market continued to show weak supply and demand this week. The number of mainstream signing companies remained at around 5, but the transaction structure was divided: the order volume and transaction prices of leading rod-shaped silicon companies and granular silicon companies were basically the same as in the previous period, while some second-tier companies were slightly blocked due to weak downstream demand, and the focus of transaction prices declined slightly while the range remained unchanged. However, second-tier companies account for a relatively small share of the turnover, which did not have a substantial impact on the overall average price this week.

According to Antec statistics, the transaction price range for polysilicon n-type composite materials this week was 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 53,200 yuan/ton, which was the same from month to month. The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon was 50,000-51,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 50,500 yuan/ton, which remained flat from month to month.

According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch, domestic polysilicon production in November was about 114,900 tons, a sharp decrease of 15.9% over the previous month. Despite the increase brought about by the resumption of production by some companies such as Daquan, Oriental Hope, Lihao, and CSG in November, overall supply contracted significantly. The monthly net reduction was about 22,000 tons, mainly due to planned production cuts or maintenance by leading companies such as Tongwei and GCL.

Looking ahead to December, according to the production schedule plans of various companies, domestic polysilicon production is expected to remain within 120,000 tons, with a slight increase over the previous month. The increase mainly comes from inspection and repair production by companies such as Tongwei and the decline in production by other companies. Demand side expectations were even weaker during the same period, and all aspects of silicon wafers, cells, and components are planning to further reduce production in order to cope with high inventory and insufficient demand for terminals. Therefore, with the operating rate on the silicon side being relatively stable and downstream demand weakening at an accelerated pace, it is expected that the polysilicon market accumulation trend will continue in December.

Judging comprehensively, although the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the polysilicon market has not improved, and high inventory pressure continues, the impact of companies' actual shipments and the belief in maintaining the stability of the industrial chain has now surpassed the simple fundamentals of supply and demand. It is expected that in the short term, the key price trend will still depend on the company's actual shipping strategy and price stability determination. Under the existing industry consensus, the polysilicon market is likely to continue to maintain a weak and steady operation trend.