Atlassian (TEAM): Reassessing Valuation After AWS Marketplace Expansion and Accelerated Cloud-AI Strategy
Atlassian (TEAM) just took a meaningful step in its cloud transformation strategy by listing key cloud apps like Jira, Confluence, and Jira Service Management on AWS Marketplace, aligning more closely with enterprise cloud budgets and workflows.
See our latest analysis for Atlassian.
Despite the strategic AWS tie up, Atlassian’s 1 year total shareholder return is still deep in the red and the year to date share price return of minus 34.3% shows sentiment is only just starting to thaw, even with a recent pickup in short term share price momentum.
If this kind of cloud and AI driven story appeals to you, it may be worth browsing other high growth tech and AI stocks that could be riding similar long term themes.
With cloud revenue accelerating, AI adoption scaling, and the stock trading at a sizeable discount to analyst targets, is Atlassian now mispriced relative to its growth runway, or is the market already discounting years of compounding ahead?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 35.0% Undervalued
With the narrative fair value near $245.24 against Atlassian’s $159.33 last close, the spread implies investors may be underestimating its execution runway.
Continued digital transformation and enterprise cloud migration, highlighted by a record number of large enterprise deals and ongoing customer consolidation onto Atlassian's platform, are driving robust paid seat expansion and cross-sell opportunities, positioning the company for sustained top-line growth and improved operating leverage.
Curious how double digit growth, rising margins, and a sky high future earnings multiple can all coexist in one model? Discover the aggressive assumptions powering this upside case.
Result: Fair Value of $245.24 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, lingering uncertainty around complex cloud migrations and slower than expected AI monetization could challenge these upside assumptions and trigger a reassessment of Atlassian’s valuation.
Find out about the key risks to this Atlassian narrative.
Build Your Own Atlassian Narrative
If you see the story differently or want to stress test your own assumptions with the same data, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Atlassian research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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