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    How Cigna’s PBM Shift to Transparent Fees and New Probe Will Impact Cigna Group (CI) Investors

    Simply Wall St·12/07/2025 17:11:17
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    • Cigna Group recently announced a major overhaul of its Evernorth pharmacy benefit management business, shifting from a traditional rebate-based model to a more transparent fee-based structure that it expects will temporarily pressure profits before margins eventually stabilize.
    • This change, alongside a new shareholder investigation into potential disclosure issues, puts a spotlight on how Cigna balances PBM transparency, regulation, and long-term earnings power.
    • We’ll now examine how Cigna’s move to a transparent, fee-based PBM model could reshape the company’s investment narrative and risk profile.

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    Cigna Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Cigna today, you need to believe its mix of health insurance and Evernorth services can support steady earnings despite regulatory and pricing pressure on the PBM model. The shift to a transparent, fee-based Evernorth structure directly hits the company’s key near term catalyst of margin stability in pharmacy services while amplifying the biggest current risk: tighter scrutiny of PBM economics and potential profit compression.

    Among recent developments, the shareholder investigation into potential disclosure issues around Cigna’s communications adds another layer of uncertainty right on top of the PBM overhaul. While investigations do not always lead to enforcement or settlements, they can weigh on sentiment and raise questions about how clearly management is framing both the risks and the earnings path through this transition.

    But before you assume this is just a short term earnings story, you should understand how concentrated Cigna’s risk is in Evernorth’s PBM economics and...

    Read the full narrative on Cigna Group (it's free!)

    Cigna Group's narrative projects $299.7 billion revenue and $7.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.8 billion earnings increase from $5.0 billion today.

    Uncover how Cigna Group's forecasts yield a $328.35 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CI Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
    CI Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

    Eleven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Cigna’s fair value anywhere between about US$280 and over US$1,025, underlining how far apart expectations can be. When you set those views against the very real risk that tighter PBM regulation could pressure Evernorth margins, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives before deciding how Cigna fits into your portfolio.

    Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Cigna Group - why the stock might be worth just $280.00!

    Build Your Own Cigna Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.