BOC International: Passenger cars will enter a high consolidation period next year, and it is recommended to focus on targets with overseas production capacity and vertical integration advantages

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that in 2026, the passenger car industry will enter a high consolidation period. Retail sales of passenger cars are expected to increase 0.3% year-on-year to 24.45 million units throughout the year, and the penetration rate of new energy sources will exceed 60%. In terms of exports, the total overseas sales volume is expected to reach 75-8 million vehicles in 2026. It is recommended to focus on targets with overseas production capacity and vertical integration advantages, such as BYD (01211), Geely Auto (00175), and Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868), which is flexible in Robotaxi and smart. Spare parts, on the other hand, are optimistic about Hesai-W (02525).

As robot prices drop, the bank expects the commercialization of C-end humanoid robots to be smoother in 2026. After phased fluctuations at the end of the year, the 2026 sector is expected to enter a stage of consolidation and rational return. The focus is on nodes such as Tesla (TSLA.US) Optimus mass production orders and Gen3 prototype release, as well as the implementation of supply chain orders from domestic machine manufacturers. In terms of heavy trucks, the bank believes that due to the release of policy dividends and the acceleration of the penetration of new energy sources, mainland heavy truck sales (including exports) are expected to increase 5% year-on-year to about 1.1 million units in 2026. It is optimistic about Sinotruk (03808) and Weichai Power (02338). In terms of lithium batteries, the bank said demand for energy storage is strong, and expectations for improving profits in the industrial chain are increasing. Total global demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase by about 22% year on year next year. It is recommended to focus on cost and technical advantages, such as the Ningde Era (03750).