CICC: In 2026, the life insurance industry will re-enter the gold development period and return investment in the insurance industry to give a valuation premium for growth capacity

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Financial Services released a research report saying that it will determine that the life insurance industry will enter a new growth cycle at the end of 2022, but due to factors such as falling interest rates, debt growth since 2023 is not very convincing, and the industry's stock price is mainly affected by more intense asset fluctuations. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the life insurance industry will re-enter a golden development period, and the debt side will show a more positive development trend. The industry investment logic will return from “seeking revaluation and repair of the stock business” to “giving a valuation premium for growth capacity”. Above the eV.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Chinese life insurance: five major trends, the return of the king

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the five major trends in the life insurance industry are worth paying attention to: 1) the new business continues to grow rapidly, embracing “deposit moving” and the “new era of health insurance”; 2) the rigid cost of the new business has been further reduced and the value persuasion of the new business has increased; 3) the diversification of the new business product structure, and the new business quality and industry differentiation; 4) the industry's customer base is moving upward. At the same time, the industry's business model and talent are concentrated in companies with life insurance management capabilities; 5) the competitive pattern is concentrated in companies with life insurance management capabilities. The bank believes that the insurance industry in mainland China is substantially moving towards high-quality development, and leading companies are hopeful that Wang Zhe will return.

Financial insurance: Auto insurance is profitable and not the icing on the cake for cars and overseas trips

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects car insurance premiums to grow slowly, the business structure of leading companies will continue to improve underwriting profits, and new energy vehicle insurance will gradually move into the profit range; non-car insurance growth is expected to continue to slow down in a low inflation environment, and health insurance is expected to become an important growth driver. After the “integration of reporting and banking”, non-vehicle underwriting profits of large companies are expected to start an upward trend. Furthermore, the bank believes that the current internal and external environment of China's financial insurance industry is structurally similar to Japan's financial insurance after the 80s of the last century, and that there is an important historical opportunity to replicate its successful overseas path.

Hong Kong Life Insurance: Mainland China Business May Become Investment Highlight

Hong Kong life insurance players such as AIA have continued to decline in the past few years due to foreign concerns about Chinese assets and questions about the development prospects of the insurance industry in mainland China; looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that as foreign investors change their attitude towards Chinese assets and the mainland China insurance industry re-enters the golden development period, especially under the upward migration trend of the industry customer base, the development trend and business structure of Hong Kong life insurance companies such as AIA may once again be clearly better than their Chinese peers and mainland China business.

risk

The premium growth rate of new policies fell short of expectations; long-term interest rates changed drastically; capital markets fluctuated greatly; natural disasters; and policy uncertainty.