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    The Bull Case For Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Could Change Following Sharp Analyst Earnings Downgrades And Zacks Rank 5

    Simply Wall St·12/08/2025 07:13:20
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    • In recent months, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation has drawn heightened attention as analysts sharply revised down near-term earnings forecasts, with Zacks assigning the stock its weakest Rank #5 rating based on these estimate cuts.
    • This shift in analyst expectations underscores how quickly sentiment around Louisiana-Pacific’s earnings power can change, even as its longer-term business themes remain in focus.
    • Next, we’ll examine how this downgrade in earnings expectations and Zacks Rank #5 rating may affect Louisiana-Pacific’s existing investment narrative.

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    Louisiana-Pacific Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Louisiana-Pacific, you generally need to believe in sustained demand for engineered wood siding and OSB across new construction and repair/remodel, despite cyclical housing pressure. The recent Zacks Rank #5 downgrade and weaker earnings expectations sharpen the near term risk that softer volumes and low OSB pricing keep margins under strain, but they do not fundamentally change the long term siding-led growth story or the importance of ExpertFinish as a key short term catalyst.

    The most relevant recent update is management’s guidance that full year 2025 revenue should grow about 8% to roughly US$1.68 billion, with Q4 supported by continued strength in higher value ExpertFinish siding. This reinforces how much the nearer term outlook now leans on mix and pricing in siding to offset weaker OSB profitability and softer end market demand, a balance that may look more fragile in light of the recent earnings estimate cuts and Zacks Rank shift.

    Yet even with this support from ExpertFinish, investors should be aware that prolonged weakness in U.S. housing starts and repair/remodel demand could...

    Read the full narrative on Louisiana-Pacific (it's free!)

    Louisiana-Pacific's narrative projects $3.3 billion revenue and $435.7 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Louisiana-Pacific's forecasts yield a $105.88 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LPX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
    LPX Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$25.68 to US$105.88 per share, highlighting sharply different views on LPX. Against this wide range, the recent earnings downgrades and concern over sustained housing and OSB pricing headwinds give you important context on how fragile near term performance could be.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Louisiana-Pacific - why the stock might be worth as much as 26% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Louisiana-Pacific Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.