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    Will AGNC’s (AGNC) Stronger Revenue and Reaffirmed Monthly Dividend Offset Its Earnings Miss?

    Simply Wall St·12/08/2025 12:13:50
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    • AGNC Investment recently reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share falling short of expectations while revenue surpassed projections, and its Board declared a US$0.12 monthly cash dividend per share for November, payable in December.
    • This combination of stronger revenue and ongoing monthly dividends, despite the earnings miss, appears to have supported investor confidence and enthusiasm around AGNC’s mortgage REIT model.
    • Next, we’ll examine how stronger revenue alongside a reaffirmed monthly dividend shapes AGNC Investment’s broader investment narrative and risk profile.

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    AGNC Investment Investment Narrative Recap

    To own AGNC Investment, you need to believe its agency mortgage REIT model can keep turning a complex interest rate and spread environment into sustainable cash flows. The recent revenue beat and reaffirmed US$0.12 monthly dividend support the near term income story, but do little to reduce the key risk that changing rate expectations and agency MBS spreads could again pressure book value and earnings.

    The Board’s decision to maintain the US$0.12 monthly dividend for November 2025 is the announcement that ties closest to this latest earnings update. For many shareholders, the consistency of that payout sits at the heart of the near term catalyst, particularly as the stock trades around a recent 52 week high and sentiment remains sensitive to any sign that earnings and cash flows might not cover such a high yield.

    But while the dividend looks steady today, investors should still be aware that AGNC’s exposure to shifting interest rates and agency MBS spreads could...

    Read the full narrative on AGNC Investment (it's free!)

    AGNC Investment's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 32.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.0 billion earnings increase from $731.0 million today.

    Uncover how AGNC Investment's forecasts yield a $9.82 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AGNC Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
    AGNC Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

    Fifteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$5 to US$23 per share, with several clustered above the current price. You can weigh those views against the fact that AGNC’s results remain heavily exposed to future interest rate volatility and agency spread movements, which could meaningfully affect both earnings power and dividend durability over time.

    Explore 15 other fair value estimates on AGNC Investment - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own AGNC Investment Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.