Has Knorr-Bremse AG's (ETR:KBX) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?
Knorr-Bremse's (ETR:KBX) stock is up by a considerable 13% over the past month. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Knorr-Bremse's ROE today.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Knorr-Bremse is:
15% = €471m ÷ €3.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every €1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated €0.15 in profit.
See our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Knorr-Bremse's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE
To start with, Knorr-Bremse's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 9.2% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. As you might expect, the 3.4% net income decline reported by Knorr-Bremse is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.
So, as a next step, we compared Knorr-Bremse's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 14% over the last few years.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for KBX? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Knorr-Bremse Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (that is, a retention ratio of 52%), the fact that Knorr-Bremse's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.
Moreover, Knorr-Bremse has been paying dividends for seven years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 45%. As a result, Knorr-Bremse's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 18% for future ROE.
Conclusion
On the whole, we do feel that Knorr-Bremse has some positive attributes. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.