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    What Sanmina (SANM)'s Q4 Beat and Upbeat 2026 Guidance Means For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·12/08/2025 16:10:09
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    • Sanmina recently reported its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results, with revenue and non-GAAP earnings surpassing consensus expectations on strong demand in communications networks, cloud, and AI infrastructure end markets.
    • Management’s guidance for first-quarter fiscal 2026, calling for US$2.05–US$2.15 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of US$1.95–US$2.25, stands in contrast to the company’s historically modest growth and low-margin profile, while short interest remains elevated versus peers despite a recent reduction.
    • We’ll now examine how this earnings beat and confident near-term guidance may influence Sanmina’s investment narrative built around AI infrastructure expansion.

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    Sanmina Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Sanmina, you need to believe its pivot toward complex, higher value AI and cloud infrastructure can offset a history of modest growth and thin margins. The latest earnings beat and confident first quarter fiscal 2026 guidance reinforce AI infrastructure demand as the key short term catalyst, while elevated short interest and ongoing concerns about profitability leave execution on this mix shift as the central risk.

    The most relevant recent development is Sanmina’s new credit agreement and term loan facilities of up to US$3.5 billion, which underpin the planned acquisition of ZT Systems. This deal is central to the AI infrastructure narrative because it could significantly increase exposure to data center customers and accelerate revenue growth, but it also heightens balance sheet and working capital risks if AI server demand or product cycles evolve differently than expected.

    Yet beneath the strong AI-driven story, investors should be aware of the inventory and integration risks tied to the ZT Systems deal...

    Read the full narrative on Sanmina (it's free!)

    Sanmina’s narrative projects $9.7 billion revenue and $375.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $116 million earnings increase from $259.2 million today.

    Uncover how Sanmina's forecasts yield a $190.00 fair value, a 20% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SANM Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
    SANM Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

    Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$31.71 to US$223.74 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. When opinions are this spread, it becomes even more important to weigh the upside from AI infrastructure growth against Sanmina’s exposure to large, concentrated customers and the potential impact on long term earnings if any of those relationships change.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Sanmina - why the stock might be worth as much as 42% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Sanmina Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Sanmina research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Sanmina research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Sanmina's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.