Fangzheng Securities: Optimistic about the boom in China's shipbuilding market for a long time, and the investment value of the shipbuilding sector continues to stand out
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that the two major central enterprises have completed a record order and may lead a new wave of fleet upgrades. Looking at the medium to long term, structural change support for the aging of the global fleet and the decarbonization transformation of global shipping will last for a long time. In the short term, oil dispersion is expected to resonate, and the profitable effects of rising freight rates may continue to be transmitted to the upstream shipbuilding industry. The bank believes that the three core issues of suppressing new orders will be fully resolved in 2026, and is optimistic about the upward trend in the shipbuilding market for a long time. The bank believes that the current shipping sector has both long-term growth, performance certainty, and reasonable valuation, and that the investment value continues to stand out.
Fangzheng Securities's main views are as follows:
The two major central enterprises have completed a record order signing, which may lead a new round of fleet upgrades
On December 8, 2025, China Shipbuilding Group and China Ocean Shipping Group completed a cooperation agreement on a new shipbuilding project in Shanghai, involving 87 ships of various types, amounting to more than 50 billion yuan. This cooperation transcends the significance of short-term orders. Through “manufacture+operation” closed-loop cooperation, the two sides not only guarantee the capacity upgrade and energy security of the domestic shipping network, but also form a green smart ship solution that can be exported to the outside world, helping the Chinese shipbuilding industry to enhance pricing power and brand influence in the field of high-end ship models, and move from scale advantage to technological ecological advantage. This is not only the largest domestic cooperation order signed by a Chinese shipbuilding company, but also a milestone event where strategic collaboration between the world's top shipbuilders and shipping companies has entered a new stage in the context of the global shipping and shipbuilding industry accelerating towards greening and intelligence, and may lead to a new round of fleet upgrades and industrial collaboration.
Orders rebounded strongly in November, and Chinese shipping companies are still the first choice for shipowners
The full schedule of shipyard orders this year suppressed shipowners' desire to place orders. At the same time, uncertainty about policies such as the US tariff policy, the 301 Act, and the IMO net zero agreement further intensified shipowners' wait-and-see sentiment. The global new shipbuilding market generally cooled down, but there was a clear rebound in November. From January to November of this year, the cumulative global volume of new ship orders was 1,627 ships and 44.99 million CGT. In terms of CGT, the year-on-year decrease was 37%. Global new ship orders in November were 152 ships and 5.13 million CGT in a single month, an increase of 72% over the 2.99 million CGT in October this year.
On the supply side, China's shipyards are in a leading position in the world in terms of price, quality, and delivery, and are still the first choice for shipowners. In January-November, Chinese shipping companies received a total of 1,067 ships and 26.64 million CGT orders, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, with a market share of 59%, ranking first in the world. With the exception of January and March, it has occupied the top position in the monthly order intake list 9 times.
Demand for oil dispersion is expected to resonate, and the shipbuilding market is optimistic about the upward trend in the long term
Looking at the medium to long term, structural change support from the aging of the global fleet (the age of various types of ships reached a record high) and the decarbonization transformation of global shipping (as of August, dual-fuel ships currently account for only 3.7% of ships in service and under construction). In the short term, oil dispersion is expected to resonate, and the profitable effects of rising freight rates may continue to be transmitted to the upstream shipbuilding industry.
In terms of oil transportation, the effects of increasing crude oil production in the Middle East and South America in the second half of this year were evident. Combined with India's increase in crude oil imports from non-Russian suppliers, VLCC freight rates rose and remained high, and the money-making effect was transmitted to shipbuilders. According to Clarkson's latest data, the world has placed orders for 38 new VLCC ships since July, which is far higher than the level of 12 ships in the first half of the year.
In terms of bulk transportation, the new energy industry chain is becoming a “new source of demand for bulk goods”. Demand for small commodities such as aluminum and cobalt grew rapidly, and the BDI index surged 31.4% in November. The official commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea in November will also bring long-term predictable volume growth to the shipping market. According to Drury's analysis, the full commissioning of Simandou will generate demand for 116 new Capesize bulk carriers.
The bank believes that the three core problems of suppressing new orders, “no place to build,” “no money to build,” and “I don't know what ship to build” will be fully resolved in 2026, and it is optimistic that the shipbuilding market will improve in the long term.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk