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    The Bull Case For Marvell Technology (MRVL) Could Change Following Amazon AI Shift And Celestial AI Deal

    Simply Wall St·12/09/2025 05:07:40
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    • In early December 2025, Marvell Technology reported a jump in third-quarter revenue to US$2,074.5 million and swung from a net loss to net income of US$1,901.3 million, issued guidance for fourth-quarter revenue of about US$2.20 billion, and was reported to be in advanced talks to acquire photonics startup Celestial AI in a multi‑billion‑dollar cash‑and‑stock deal.
    • At the same time, fresh concerns about Marvell potentially losing Amazon’s next‑generation Trainium AI chip designs to a rival, alongside differing analyst views, have sharpened focus on how dependent the company’s AI growth story is on a small number of large cloud customers.
    • We’ll now examine how the reported loss of Amazon’s Trainium chip designs could affect Marvell’s AI‑driven investment narrative and outlook.

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    Marvell Technology Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Marvell today, you need to believe its AI focused data center silicon and interconnect franchise can keep winning large cloud programs despite concentrated customer exposure. The recent Trainium design loss concerns go straight to that point, because the biggest near term catalyst is sustained hyperscaler AI demand, while the biggest risk is losing or shrinking custom chip roles with customers like Amazon and Microsoft. Whether the reported Trainium setback proves material depends on how much replacement business Marvell actually secures.

    The most relevant update here is Marvell’s third quarter earnings, where revenue reached US$2,074.5 million and GAAP net income jumped to US$1,901.3 million, helped by a large one off gain. Management also guided fourth quarter revenue to about US$2.20 billion, which investors are now reassessing in light of the Trainium headlines, since any confirmed design loss could eventually ripple into that custom XPU growth narrative.

    But investors should also be aware that Marvell’s growing reliance on a few large, sometimes lumpy, AI custom XPU projects means...

    Read the full narrative on Marvell Technology (it's free!)

    Marvell Technology's narrative projects $12.1 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Marvell Technology's forecasts yield a $91.73 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MRVL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MRVL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Twenty nine members of the Simply Wall St Community value Marvell between US$48.74 and US$155.37 per share, highlighting very different expectations. You can compare those views with the current concern that losing Amazon Trainium designs might test how robust Marvell’s AI data center growth story really is.

    Explore 29 other fair value estimates on Marvell Technology - why the stock might be worth as much as 69% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Marvell Technology Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.