Zheshang Securities: Excavator sales growth slightly exceeded expectations in November, focusing on construction machinery leaders
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that in November 2025, it sold 20027 excavators of various types, up 13.9% year on year. Its sales volume in China was 9842 units, up 9.1% year on year; export volume was 10,185 units, up 18.8% year on year. The bottoming up of the domestic cycle is mainly benefiting from the growth in demand for small mining driven by agriculture, forestry, and municipal demand. Based on the 8-10 year renewal cycle, it is expected that the domestic renewal cycle will gradually start in 2025, and it is expected that the cycle will bottom out and rise. China's construction machinery industry is a global dominant industry (advantages such as cost performance), and it is expected that it will gradually move from import substitution to global supply. The bank recommended continuing to focus on industry leaders.
The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Total excavator sales increased 14% year on year in November, with domestic sales up 9% year on year and export sales up 19% year on year
Total excavator sales in November were 20027 units, up 14% year on year. Sales volume in China was 9842 units, up 9% year on year; export volume was 10,185 units, up 19% year on year. Total excavator sales in January-November were 212,162 units, up 17% year on year; sales volume in China was 108,187 units, up 19% year on year; export was 10,3975 units, up 15% year on year.
The overseas market share of construction machinery has increased, and the domestic renewal cycle has gradually started. Considering the impact of factors such as the increase in overseas market share of China's construction machinery OEMs and the increase in demand for infrastructure and real estate brought about by the promotion of urbanization and industrialization in the “Belt and Road” region, the positive growth trend of China's construction machinery exports is expected to continue. The bottoming up of the domestic cycle mainly benefits from factors such as growing demand for small and micro excavation driven by agriculture, forestry, and municipal demand, China's OEMs continued to break through in the field of mining machinery, large excavation and oversized excavation demand brought about by water conservancy demand, and the gradual launch of domestic renewal demand.
In November, total loader sales increased 32% year on year, domestic sales increased 29% year on year, and export sales increased 35% year on year
In November 2025, 11,419 loaders of various types were sold, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year. Its sales volume in China was 5,671 units, up 29.4% year on year; export volume was 5,748 units, up 34.8% year on year. From January to November 2025, a total of 115,831 loaders of various types were sold, an increase of 17.2% over the previous year. Its sales volume in China was 61,039 units, up 22.5% year on year; export volume was 5,4792 units, up 11.9% year on year.
Construction machinery: Overseas market share increased, domestic renewal cycle gradually started
1) Exports: Globalization continues to advance, and overseas market share is expected to continue to increase. China's construction machinery industry is a global dominant industry (advantages such as cost performance), and it is expected that it will gradually move from import substitution to global supply. According to KHL, in 2024, the world's top 50 construction machinery manufacturers had total sales of US$237.6 billion, of which Xugong Machinery/Sany Heavy Industries/Zhonglian Heavy Industries had a market share of 5.4%/4.6%/2.4% (total 12.4%), and there is plenty of room for future growth.
2) Domestic demand: On the morning of July 19, the commencement ceremony for the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Brahmaputra River was held in Linzhi City, Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. According to the Financial Services Association on August 8, recently, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established. The legal representative is Ma Yinjun, with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan. In April 2025, the Ministry of Transport announced at a press conference that in February 2025, the Ministry of Transport prepared and issued “Major Projects and Major Projects to Accelerate the Construction of a Strong Transportation Country (2025 Edition)”, which plans major projects such as the Xinzang Railway. Preliminary work on projects such as the Xinzang Railway is being accelerated, and efforts are being made to start construction within the year. Domestic demand for construction machinery is expected to improve marginally.
3) Update: The domestic renewal cycle is gradually starting, and the cycle is expected to bottom up. 2015 is the bottom of the excavator cycle. Based on the 8-10 year renewal cycle, it is expected that the domestic renewal cycle will gradually start in 2025, and the cycle is expected to bottom up.
Construction machinery OEMs plan to go public on the Hong Kong stock market, and Xugong Machinery announces equity incentive plans
On October 28, Sany Heavy Industries H shares (06031) were listed. A total of about 630 million shares were sold. The final sale price was HK$21.30, and the net capital raised was approximately HK$13.3 billion. On the evening of May 28, Shantui Co., Ltd. announced that it would be listed on H shares. The listing of construction machinery OEMs on Hong Kong stocks will help enhance the brand's international influence, provide efficient financing channels, attract global capital, and help expand overseas markets, product technology research and development, and overseas production capacity expansion. On the evening of September 2, Xugong Machinery announced the 2025 Stock Options and Restricted Stock Incentive Plan (draft). It plans to grant equity incentives to no more than 4,700 people, including stock option incentives and restricted stock incentives. It plans to grant a total of 470 million shares, accounting for about 4% of the company's total share capital. On the evening of October 30, Zoomlion Heavy Industries announced that it plans to issue no more than RMB 6 billion worth of H share convertible corporate bonds. The bonds have a maturity of 5 years, an annualized yield of 1.8%, and an initial conversion price of HK$9.75 per H share, a premium of about 35.23% over the closing price of HK$7.21 per share on the trading day before the board's decision (October 28, 2025).
Risk warning: Investment in infrastructure and real estate falls short of expectations; risk of overseas trade friction; project implementation falls short of expectations.