Astronics (ATRO): Reassessing Valuation After Airbus Cuts 2025 Delivery Guidance
Astronics (ATRO) slipped after Airbus trimmed its 2025 delivery plans, citing fuselage panel quality issues, and the market quickly connected that slowdown to potential demand pressure across the aerospace supply chain.
See our latest analysis for Astronics.
Even with today’s wobble on the Airbus headline, Astronics’ 1 month share price return of 12.07 percent and year to date share price return of 233.44 percent show strong momentum, supported by a 3 year total shareholder return of 435.06 percent.
If you want to see how other names in the space are positioned after this Airbus update, it is a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks.
With analysts still calling Astronics a buy and price targets sitting comfortably above the latest close, the question now is whether the recent surge still leaves upside or if markets are already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 16.1% Undervalued
With Astronics last closing at $52.65 versus a narrative fair value of $62.75, the storyline points to meaningful upside if its assumptions land.
Strategic portfolio actions, including exiting low margin/non core product lines, rationalizing facilities, and a sharpened focus on higher margin aerospace segments, are simplifying the business, improving gross margins, and supporting a sustainable step up in net margins. Enhanced FAA certification capability (via the Envoy Aerospace acquisition) positions Astronics to better capitalize on the growing trend toward aircraft digital transformation, retrofits, and regulatory driven upgrades, attracting higher value contracts and reducing schedule risks, all with positive implications for long term earnings.
Want to see what powers that higher fair value, beyond the recent share surge? The narrative leans on rapid earnings acceleration, rising margins, and a future multiple more often reserved for sector standouts. Curious how those moving parts combine into that target price and why the discount rate still supports it? The full breakdown reveals the specific growth path behind the headline number.
Result: Fair Value of $62.75 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, elevated tariff exposure and persistent execution hiccups in the Test segment could quickly dent margins and challenge the bullish growth narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Astronics narrative.
Another View on Value
While the narrative fair value paints Astronics as 16.1 percent undervalued, our SWS fair ratio using the price-to-sales ratio tells a different story. At 2.3 times sales versus a fair ratio of 1.2 times and peers at 1.5 times, the stock screens expensive, raising the risk that expectations may already be stretched. Which lens do you trust more?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Build Your Own Astronics Narrative
If you would rather test the numbers and assumptions yourself, you can build a personalized take on Astronics in just a few minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Astronics research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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