Ricard Court: Overall property prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by about 7% next year, rents will increase by about 3% for the whole year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Liao Weiqiang, CEO of Li Jia Ge Real Estate, said he believes the Hong Kong property market will show an uninterrupted upward trend next year, showing a steady recovery. He predicts that overall property prices will record an increase of about 7% in 2026, with small and medium-sized residential property prices rising 6-8% throughout the year; while luxury property prices are expected to rise 8% against the backdrop of improved market conditions and the previous low base, plus the support of investment immigration and talent entry into the market.

In terms of rents, the increase in rent is expected to narrow in 2026 as it has continued to record significant increases, as rent-to-buy and investors' market entry supply increases, so the increase is only 3% for the whole year. The increase in small and medium-sized residential rents and luxury property rents is expected to be similar.

According to the Land Registry, as of December 8 this year, a total of 541.04 million private residential transactions were registered in Hong Kong in 2025, involving an amount of approximately HK$471,055 billion. According to trend estimates, the annual registration volume is expected to eventually record about 57,200, up 18% from about 48,400 in 2024, achieving two consecutive increases. In terms of the total value of high-ranking property transactions in the past 4 years, it is predicted to increase 13% to about HK$497 billion for the whole year. It is also rising for two consecutive years, the highest number in nearly 4 years.

Summarizing the first-hand private home market in 2025, as of December 8, transaction registration values were recorded at HK$188.19 million and HK$209.276 million respectively. It is expected that the relevant volume will eventually reach approximately 19.94 million units and HK$221 billion for the whole year, which will increase by 23% and 7%, respectively, from last year. The number of first-hand private home registrations has recorded an increase for 3 consecutive years. In addition to further testing, it has also reached its highest level in the past 6 years and more than 21 times. As for the average transaction price of each first-hand private home in 2025, it is expected to be HK$1.08 million, down about 12.7% from the previous year. This is mainly due to the relatively large share of low-priced property registrations during the year.

As of December 8 this year, the registered volume of second-hand private home transactions was recorded at HK$352.85 million and HK$261,779 million respectively. It is expected that the final annual registration volume will be about 37,200, up 16% from about 32,200 in 2024. It has risen for two consecutive years, further breaking away from the historical low in 2023 and reaching a new high of nearly 4 years. As for the total annual transaction value, which is expected to reach HK$276 billion, the year-on-year increase will be 18%. This is the first rebound after 3 years of continuous decline, and is expected to be the highest in nearly 4 years; this simultaneous rise in value reflects a further recovery in the property market. Based on the average transaction price of each second-hand private home, it is estimated to be HK$7.41 million in 2025, which is a slight increase of about 1.5% over the previous year.