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Private Equity Stocks Rally In Sync: Here's Why Something Big Is Brewing

Benzinga·12/09/2025 20:03:00
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A synchronized rally of private-equity titans unfolded on Tuesday as investors rushed into alternative-asset plays ahead of a widely expected Fed rate cut and after JPMorgan Asset Management unveiled a sweeping vision for a new era in private-market returns.

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Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) soared 6% to near three-month highs, on track for its strongest performing day since the US-China tariff truce announced on May 12. The move also cemented a full recovery from the September hit linked to First Brands and Tricolor Holdings, a sell-off that briefly spooked investors on fears of broader private-equity contagion.

KKR Inc. & Co Inc (NYSE:KKR) gained 5%, extending a six-session win streak, while Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) climbed 4%. Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) outshined the group with an 8% rally as the stock prepares to join the S&P 500 on Dec. 11.

For the latter, Tuesday could mark the best session since April 9, when President Donald Trump made a U-turn on Liberation Day tariffs.

The macro backdrop added fuel. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders pricing a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday, while Polymarket odds pushed confidence even higher at 95%.

JPMorgan: Private Markets Offer More Than Just Diversification

In a research note shared Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management described 2026 as a period of "public-private convergence," with artificial intelligence, energy transition, and a once-in-a-generation capex boom pulling both markets closer together.

Underneath that, they expect a meaningful pickup in M&A, a backlog of companies waiting to exit and lower interest rates acting as the catalyst the industry has been missing for two years.

The report also highlights that today's leading companies stay private for far longer, especially in sectors such as technology and biotech, where venture capital and growth equity are expanding rapidly.

"Companies are staying private longer, enabled by the unprecedented depth and size of private markets — now estimated to be close to USD20 trillion," said Jed Laskowitz, analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management.

The result: public investors are missing out on earlier stages of innovation-driven returns unless they gain exposure through private market vehicles.

“Innovation, especially in technology, is increasingly funded away from public exchanges,” Laskowitz added.

According to JPMorgan, we are living a "once-in-a-generation capital expenditure cycle," powered by artificial intelligence, infrastructure modernization and energy transition.

Why Private Equity Names Are Taking Off

Private equity giants are increasingly becoming the go-to avenue for public-market investors seeking exposure to the surging influence of private markets.

JPMorgan isn't alone here. Other top Wall Street banks are landing on the same conclusion.

Bank of America Head of Thematic Investing Heim Israel said that over a 10-year horizon, private equity has beaten the S&P 500 by an average of 6% points each year.

“Remaining private could avoid the potentially higher costs and regulations associated with being public. In the time spent on financial regulation paperwork every year, 12 Great Pyramids of Giza could be built,” he said in an October report.

The rise of AI has only magnified this divide.

Today's most transformative innovators — OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks — remain private.

OpenAI, valued at $500 billion, would rank as the 16th largest company in the S&P 500 if publicly listed.

Their influence extends far beyond their own business models: the AI breakthroughs pioneered by these firms are reshaping employment, productivity, infrastructure demand and competitive dynamics across the global economy.

The scramble to secure a portion of this market has forced big tech to build stakes directly. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) have invested in roughly 50% of the 100 AI unicorns that emerged since ChatGPT launched in 2022.

Bank of America has even coined a term for this phenomenon: the "Private Magnificent 7." Their combined valuation has surged to $1.4 trillion, almost five times higher than in 2023.

The roster includes OpenAI at $500 billion, SpaceX at $400 billion, Anthropic at $183 billion, Databricks at $100 billion, Stripe at $92 billion, xAI at $50 billion and Revolut at $45 billion.

Bottom line, the rush into private-equity stocks suggests the center of gravity for innovation and returns is shifting beyond public exchanges. And if this trend continues, days like today may become far more common.

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Photo: Elle Aon on Shutterstock