What's Going On With The Uptick In Tesla Stock Today?
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are gaining ground on Tuesday. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter shared an update on the company’s Full Self-Driving technology progress.
What To Know: The firm hosted a discussion with the creator of the FSD Community Tracker, a tool designed to measure the performance of Tesla's self‑driving software. Potter reaffirmed his Overweight rating on Tesla with a $500 price target.
The tracker's key metric “miles to critical disengagement,” showed a dramatic improvement following the release of FSD v14.1.x in October. Performance jumped more than 20‑fold, from 441 miles in the prior version to over 9,200 miles, marking the strongest sequential gain in four years of data collection.
Potter highlighted data from Austin suggesting FSD vehicles could average 40,000 miles between crashes, based on seven NHTSA‑reported incidents across roughly 280,000 miles. At 13,000 miles per year, that implies an FSD‑equipped car could go about three years without a crash.
While the tracker's results generally align with Austin data, Potter cautioned that not every critical disengagement necessarily prevents an accident. He also noted that the latest version, v14.2.x, appears to show weaker performance at just 1,500 miles per disengagement, though he believes only part of that decline is meaningful.
What Else: On Monday, Tesla dropped after Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco downgraded the stock to Equal‑weight from Overweight, setting a $425 price target. Percoco argued that Tesla shares are fairly valued at current levels, citing the firm's 2026 auto industry outlook, which predicts an extended "EV Winter" lasting through 2026.
“Tesla is a clear global leader in electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real world AI and thus deserving of a premium valuation,” Percoco wrote. “However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. Looking out over the next 12 months we see a challenging catalyst path, with downside to consensus estimates, while positive catalysts for its non-auto business appear priced at current levels.”
Morgan Stanley expects U.S. EV sales to fall about 20% year‑over‑year in 2026, pressured by the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, affordability challenges and consumer hesitation. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler expects Tesla’s rapid progress on FSD to carry the stock higher next year, projecting EPS of $2.78, revenue growth of 16% and EPS growth of 54% for 2026.
TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 1.37% at $445.60 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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