Alpen Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3028) will pay a dividend of ¥25.00 on the 10th of March. This makes the dividend yield 2.2%, which will augment investor returns quite nicely.
We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Based on the last payment, AlpenLtd was paying only paying out a fraction of earnings, but the payment was a massive 103% of cash flows. The business might be trying to strike a balance between returning cash to shareholders and reinvesting back into the business, but this high of a payout ratio could definitely force the dividend to be cut if the company runs into a bit of a tough spot.
Over the next year, EPS could expand by 12.6% if recent trends continue. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 33% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.
Check out our latest analysis for AlpenLtd
Even over a long history of paying dividends, the company's distributions have been remarkably stable. Since 2015, the dividend has gone from ¥40.00 total annually to ¥50.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3% a year over that time. Although we can't deny that the dividend has been remarkably stable in the past, the growth has been pretty muted.
Investors could be attracted to the stock based on the quality of its payment history. AlpenLtd has seen EPS rising for the last five years, at 13% per annum. With a decent amount of growth and a low payout ratio, we think this bodes well for AlpenLtd's prospects of growing its dividend payments in the future.
Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.
Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for AlpenLtd (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.