Will the Bitcoin bull market “brake” not change long-term beliefs? Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut short-term target prices, but are optimistic about 2030 to $500,000

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the recent market decline, Wall Street's biggest Bitcoin bulls are lowering their short-term forecasts, but their long-term beliefs have not wavered.

Standard Chartered, a long-time supporter of cryptocurrencies, cut its Bitcoin price forecast in half due to the collapse in corporate treasury demand and weak ETF inflows. The bank currently anticipates that this initial cryptocurrency will climb to $150,000 by the end of 2026, lower than the previous forecast of $300,000, and delay the achievement of its long-term target price of $500,000 from 2028 to 2030.

Analysts Bernstein also predicted that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of next year and close to $200,000 by the end of 2027. Although the recent decline prompted them to retract their previous forecast of reaching a peak of $200,000 this year, they still insist that Bitcoin has broken away from its historic four-year cycle pattern, which indicates a more lasting growth trajectory.

While still bullish, this downward forecast marks a clear shift in market tone. Cryptocurrency supporters are adapting to a harsher market environment. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% from its peak of over $126,000 in October, and institutional purchases have been reversed. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds made a net capital of $60 million on Monday.

The bullish sentiment was verified on Tuesday, and Bitcoin climbed to its highest price in three weeks. This original cryptocurrency once rose 3.5% to over $94,400.

Jeffrey Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that companies that used Bitcoin as treasury assets to drive demand (so-called “DatS”) no longer have the valuation or motivation to support their continued purchases.

“We think DATS's purchase of Bitcoin is complete, and we expect ETF inflows to resume intermittently,” he wrote. We are expecting consolidation rather than a complete sell-off.”

With this pillar of demand disappearing, ETF funding flows are now the only supporting anchor, and it appears to be losing momentum. BlackRock's IBIT fund was redeemed by investors of around $2.3 billion last month — this is its biggest monthly redemption this year, and only its second monthly capital outflow. Although outflows account for only 3% of the fund's total assets, this retracement raises concerns about whether its fans are shaking their long-term holding strategy, considering that Bitcoin can always rebound strongly after previous sharp retracements.

Bernstein's analysts, including Gautam Chugani, Mahica Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin fell by nearly one-third, the net outflow from more than 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs only accounted for less than 5% of Bernstein's estimated total asset size. Bitcoin “is now in the midst of an extended bull market cycle, with more sticky institutional purchases offsetting any retail fearful sell-off.”

According to a November analysis by Bernstein, retail investors hold about three-quarters of spot Bitcoin ETF assets. Meanwhile, institutional ownership increased from 20% at the end of 2024 to 28%. In the longer term, analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million by the end of 2033.