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To own Alibaba today, you need to believe its heavy spending on AI and cloud will ultimately justify near term pressure on margins, while core e-commerce holds up in a competitive market. The Quark AI Glasses launch looks incremental for now, with limited near term impact on the key catalyst of AI monetization at scale, but it does slightly raise the execution risk around recouping large AI + hardware investments.
The most relevant recent development is Alibaba Cloud’s push to be China’s core AI infrastructure provider, integrating models, cloud capacity, and domestic chip efforts across its ecosystem. The Quark AI Glasses fit into this thesis by putting Qwen directly in consumers’ hands, but they also sit against a backdrop of heightened capex and ongoing scrutiny of whether AI and cloud growth can offset weaker or loss making segments.
Yet even as AI products expand, investors should be aware that Alibaba’s heavy AI and cloud capex could...
Read the full narrative on Alibaba Group Holding (it's free!)
Alibaba Group Holding's narrative projects CN¥1260.3 billion revenue and CN¥171.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.0% yearly revenue growth and about CN¥22.8 billion earnings increase from CN¥148.3 billion today.
Uncover how Alibaba Group Holding's forecasts yield a $197.98 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.
Seventy one fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$107 to US$268 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those against Alibaba’s heavy AI and cloud investment needs and the pressure they place on margins, it becomes even more important to compare several viewpoints before deciding where you stand.
Explore 71 other fair value estimates on Alibaba Group Holding - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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