BOC International: Hong Kong stock profits can be expected next year and the “slow bull” is expected to continue

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that the resilience of the global economy in 2025 generally exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, the AI technology cycle is yet to be completed, and policies remain consistent. Looking ahead to 2026, the global economic macroeconomic environment will return in an orderly manner, economic growth will be resilient to a certain extent, and interest rates may remain at restrictive levels. In an environment where growth resilience, inflation, and interest rates are high, the core logic of asset allocation shifts towards balance between offense and defense.

The main views of BOC International are as follows:

Hong Kong stocks can be expected to be profitable, and the “slow bullish” continues. The valuation is within a reasonable range, and the cost performance ratio is outstanding; the liquidity environment continues to improve, and southbound capital and overseas capital flows back; the structural highlights of the Chinese economy (AI technology, anti-domestic demand recovery) are expected to begin to be realized at the profit level.

In terms of US stocks, the “bubble” is difficult to falsify in the short term, and the style needs to be changed. Technology giants are leading technology companies benefiting from the AI revolution and capital expenditure expansion. With strong profit growth and technical barriers, they still have valuation support, but they need to be wary of slowing investment and credit risks; in addition, the market differentiation between the size and size of US stocks is expected to narrow, and small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks may usher in opportunities to make up for gains.

In terms of US debt, the “easy to rise and difficult to fall” pattern of interest rates is difficult to change. The focus is still on long-term interest rates being pressured by inflation, fiscal, and policy uncertainty, and the yield curve may be steeper.