Wanlian Securities: Seize investment opportunities in the service consumption sector and focus on restaurant chains and sports
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that in 2024, the share of domestic service consumption in consumer consumption has recovered to 46%, approaching the structural critical point of 50%. The industry is expected to enter a stage of rapid growth, becoming a key engine driving domestic demand and boosting consumption. Compared with commodity consumption, service consumption has higher growth flexibility and user stickiness by providing personalized interaction and unique experiences, and there is a broad investment space.
The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
Seizing investment opportunities in the service consumption sector can be arranged around two key dimensions
The first is to follow the main line of high replicability, seize the advantages of scale expansion and supply chain efficiency, and focus on business models that can be quickly replicated through standardized processes and strong supply chains; the second is to follow the main line of high experience to shape capabilities, seize high premiums and high growth potential, and the layout can provide users with unique experiences, emotional resonance, or cultural identity services.
Service Consumption Overview: High Potential Areas Centered on Personalized Experience
The essence of modern service consumption is shifting from “functional satisfaction” to “experiential co-creation” and “emotional healing.” From the perspective of emotional experience, service consumption is the cost that consumers pay to obtain a memorable, personalized, and integrated event and experience. It emphasizes the creation of multi-dimensional comprehensive experiences such as senses, emotions, thoughts, actions, and relationships, with the aim of forming a deep and lasting memory mark. Based on a comparative analysis of financial data from A-share listed companies, service consumption has outstanding growth elasticity, steady profitability, and leading operational efficiency compared with consumption of traditional commodities such as food and beverages, trade and retail, textiles and apparel. As the consumption scenario gradually recovers, growth potential is expected to be further unleashed.
The development of service consumption: the proportion penetrates faster, and the overall evolution of supply and demand
China's service consumption is about to reach a structural tipping point where the share of consumption is increasing at an accelerated pace. Since marginal utility declines slowly and quality service experiences are difficult to reduce consumption intentions due to repeated experiences, it has a higher growth limit and a more significant economic driving effect. Looking at development trends, as service consumption accelerates its penetration into all aspects of residents' lives, the development trend shows an overall evolution from demand, docking to supply: on the demand side, the stratification of demand needs with Gen Z and the silver hair group “one old, one young” as the core; on the docking side, the diversified service platform ecosystem has become a key hub for incubating supply and influencing decision-making; on the supply side, the “pan-service” trend of accelerated integration of services and products continues to broaden the connotations and boundaries of the consumer market.
Service Consumption Classification: From Value Connotation to Scale Potential
The bank tried to construct a classification framework for service consumption from two dimensions: the first is the ability to shape experience, that is, the psychological satisfaction, emotional resonance, and memory retention that services provide to consumers, which is highly correlated with the company's premium space, gross margin level, and customer stickiness. The second is replicability, which refers to the degree of standardization of service processes, the difficulty of supply chain management, and the potential for business models to expand across regions and groups of people. It is a key factor in determining the certainty of enterprise growth and revenue scale ceiling. Under this framework, the bank selected three main tracks of service consumption: 1) scale efficiency type (low experience shaping capability+high replicability): represented by chain restaurants and tea, quickly forming a scale advantage through standardized operation and mature supply chain systems; 2) Craftsman economy (high experience shaping capacity+low replicability): represented by concerts, through unique scarce individual resources, to provide high immediate emotional satisfaction and circle recognition to achieve strong premium capabilities; 3) brand premium type (high experience shaping+high replicability)): Industrialized with IP content, represented by sporting events It encapsulates high emotional value as a standardized, sustainably supplied product to achieve high gross margin and high growth certainty.
Recommended attention: (1) Catering and beverage chains: Chain chains are advancing at an accelerated pace, and chain leaders with brand moats and supply chain advantages will have more room for development. It is recommended to focus on chain restaurants and new tea companies with scale effects and outstanding performance flexibility; (2) Sports: The driving effect of the event economy is remarkable, and there is plenty of consumption potential for tourism, catering, IP products, etc. derived around the event. It is recommended to focus on sports companies in the field of event operation and related services; (3) Entertainment: It is recommended to focus on performing arts operations with scarce IP value and continuous fan transformation economy Business; (4) Service platform: As a key hub for connecting supply and demand and brand incubation, it is recommended to focus on platform-based enterprises with industrial enabling capabilities and stable ecology.
Risk factors: risk of natural disasters and safety accidents, increased risk of industry competition, and risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations.