Guoyuan International: Giving CSPC Group (01093) a “buy” rating to rapidly advance research and development of innovative drugs
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoyuan International released a research report saying that it gave Shiyao Group (01093) a “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$10.11. The company actively lays out innovative drugs, has increased investment in R&D, and has continued to invest heavily in R&D. It has built an international pipeline and leading platform, and the results of going overseas are remarkable. Although the proprietary drug business was pressured by collection in the short term, single-quarter results have shown a steady upward trend, and many core innovative drugs are nearing key points, and authorized revenue has become a new growth point, laying a solid foundation for medium- to long-term growth.
Guoyuan International's main views are as follows:
Investment in new drug research and development has increased, and the R&D platform has obvious advantages
The company has built an international R&D team of more than 2,000 people, focusing on anti-tumor, neuropsychiatric, cardiovascular and other treatment fields, and has 8 major R&D platforms. R&D expenses were 4.185 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year, accounting for 27.1% of proprietary drug revenue, showing that the company continues to invest heavily in innovation. Nearly 90 products are in different stages of clinical trials, 14 products have submitted marketing applications, and more than 30 are in the registered clinical stage, laying the foundation for future revenue structure transformation. The company plans to declare nearly 50 new products/new indications for the launch within the next 5 years.
New drug research and development is progressing rapidly, and overseas results are outstanding
The innovation pipeline accelerated implementation, and license fee revenue of 1.54 billion yuan contributed to a new growth pole. The cumulative potential milestone payments of overseas licensing agreements exceeded 15 billion US dollars, and the results of the international strategy were beginning to show. Eight products, including SYS6091 (HER2ADC), SYS6010 (EGFRADC), antizumab (HER2 dual antibody), and SYS6093 (TSLP monoclonal antibody), are in critical clinical stages. It is expected that 2025-2027 will intensively welcome data readings and marketing applications. SYS6010 (EGFRADC) has obtained three fast-track qualifications from the FDA and has been certified as a breakthrough treatment by NMPA. The single drug is used for EGFR-TKI and NSCLC with positive EGFR mutations that have failed in platinum-containing chemotherapy. It is currently undergoing phase III clinical trials. It is expected to submit an application for marketing in 26 years, and is expected to achieve a large amount of BD. The siRNA pipeline covers targets such as PCSK9, AGT, and LP (a), and the technology platform is leading.
Revenue improved in a single quarter
Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.891 billion yuan, down 12.3% year on year, and realized net profit of 3,511 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.06% year on year. Revenue fell to 15.450 billion yuan (-17.2%), mainly because the proprietary drug business was dragged down by price reductions in procurement and medical insurance. Looking at a single quarter, Q3 revenue was RMB 6.62 billion, up 3.4% year on year, up 5.7% month on month, and net profit was 960 million yuan, up 27.2% year on year. In the context of procurement and price reduction in the pharmaceutical industry, the company will promote the resumption of performance growth through continuous development of new product lines, a strong commercialization team, and a management team with efficient execution.
Risk Alerts
The progress of new product development may be lower than expected; progress in product commercialization falls short of expectations; the complexity of the international situation exceeds expectations, and the progress of internationalization of innovative drugs is lower than expected