Beating the bottlenecks
The aviation industry has been under mounting pressure to tackle its carbon footprint. Now, a new study has delivered a vital message: the pathway to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable – but only with urgent and coordinated global action.
The report, published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in collaboration with Worley Consulting, concludes that there is enough sustainable feedstock to produce the volumes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) needed to decarbonise the industry over the next 25 years.
Crucially, all the feedstocks considered in the study meet strict sustainability standards, meaning they would not lead to land-use changes or compete with food production.
“We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised, then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”
The scale of the challenge
To hit its net-zero target, the airline industry will need to produce 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF annually by 2050.
At present, SAF production is still in its infancy. The few facilities operating at commercial scale primarily use HEFA technology, which converts waste products such as used cooking oil into jet fuel.
The report identifies two main sources that could deliver the SAF required:
- Biomass-based SAF:
- Biomass has the potential to produce over 300 Mt of SAF annually by mid-century;
- This would come from sustainable sources such as agricultural residues, forestry waste, and municipal solid waste;
- However, some of this feedstock may be diverted to other industries, such as shipping or heavy manufacturing, unless aviation is prioritised.
- Power-to-Liquid (PtL):
- The remaining 200 Mt would need to come from PtL fuels, which are synthesised using renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon;
- This technology is still in its early stages, and scaling it up will require major investment in renewable energy and carbon capture infrastructure.
By maximising the output of bio-SAF, the pressure on more expensive e-SAF production can be reduced. But doing so will require better conversion efficiency, faster technology deployment, and investment in supply chain infrastructure.
Why SAF matters
Aviation is considered one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise. Unlike road transport, where electric vehicles are now common, there are currently no scalable alternatives to liquid fuels for long-haul flights.
Hydrogen and battery-electric aircraft may play a role in the future, but they are unlikely to meet the needs of global aviation at scale by 2050.
SAF is therefore seen as the single most important tool for reducing aviation emissions. When produced from sustainable sources, SAF can cut lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel.
The urgency is clear. According to IATA, if the industry fails to meet its 2050 net-zero target, it risks not only environmental backlash but also regulatory and economic consequences, including higher carbon taxes and restrictions on operations.
Barriers to progress
While the report paints an optimistic picture of feedstock availability, it also highlights several serious obstacles that must be overcome to turn potential into reality.
- Slow technology rollout
- Most SAF today comes from HEFA technology, but this alone cannot deliver the necessary volumes;
- Emerging technologies – such as AtJ and PtL – need to be commercialised quickly, yet progress has been slow;
- These pathways require access to cheap renewable energy, hydrogen, and carbon capture systems, all of which are currently limited.
- Competition for feedstock
- Other industries, including shipping and heavy manufacturing, are also vying for sustainable biomass feedstock;
- Policymakers will need to prioritise aviation, which has fewer decarbonisation alternatives, to ensure sufficient supply.
- Lack of infrastructure
- From refining facilities to storage and distribution networks, the global SAF supply chain is underdeveloped;
- Significant investment will be required to create a system capable of producing and transporting hundreds of millions of tonnes of SAF.
- Policy and investment gaps
- Governments must coordinate policies that de-risk private investment, support innovation and create a stable SAF market;
- Without consistent global policies, companies may be reluctant to commit to the large-scale projects needed.
“Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president of Sustainability and Chief Economist. “The time to act is now—delays will only make the challenge harder.”
Regional leadership
The study also highlights the role of key regions in driving global SAF production. North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China and ASEAN nations are expected to play pivotal roles due to their access to biomass, renewable energy resources, and industrial capacity.
For example:
- Brazil could leverage its agricultural sector to become a leading producer of bio-SAF;
- Europe is already home to ambitious climate policies that could accelerate PtL development;
- China and India have vast renewable energy potential that could support future e-SAF production.
By fostering regional hubs of SAF production, countries could stimulate local economies, create thousands of jobs, and improve energy security.
Opportunities beyond aviation
The SAF transition is not just about decarbonising air travel. It also represents a huge economic opportunity for the energy sector and broader economy.
Energy companies could diversify their portfolios by investing in SAF production facilities, while governments could use SAF as a driver for green jobs and innovation.
This, in turn, would help achieve national energy independence goals, particularly for countries seeking to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports.
The road ahead
The study concludes that achieving net-zero by 2050 is possible – but the window for action is closing fast. With just 25 years remaining, policymakers and industry leaders must work together to turn theoretical potential into tangible results.
“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action,” Walsh said. “We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.”
To succeed, the report recommends:
- Accelerating technology rollout by funding pilot projects and commercial-scale plants;
- Prioritising aviation in policies that allocate limited sustainable biomass feedstock;
- Investing in infrastructure such as refining capacity and renewable energy;
- Creating strong policy frameworks that give investors confidence to back SAF at scale.
Final thoughts
The aviation industry has been criticised for its environmental impact, but this report offers a hopeful vision.
SAF has the potential to transform air travel, allowing people and goods to move across the globe without destroying the planet.
However, the challenge is immense. The transition will demand billions of pounds in investment, unprecedented levels of international cooperation, and bold leadership from both governments and the private sector.
As Thomsen summed up: “Governments, energy producers, investors and the aviation sector must work together to de-risk investment and accelerate rollout. The time to act is now.”
If the world rises to this challenge, the skies of 2050 could be cleaner, quieter, and sustainable – proving that progress and preservation can indeed fly hand in hand.