Orient Securities: Excavator sales growth rebounded in November, it is recommended to focus on mid-market blue chip opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that it saw a recovery in the growth rate of excavators in November. Among them, improvements in domestic sales reflect structural improvements in the economy, and improvements in exports reflect an increase in the competitiveness of the industry. The bank believes that the market's expectations for structural improvements in the industry will rise, which will also lead to a decline in risk assessments, which will benefit investment opportunities for mid-market blue-chip companies. Some related targets: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH, unrated), Liugong (000528.SZ, unrated), Zoomlion Heavy Industries (000157.SZ, purchased), Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ, unrated).

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

Excavator sales growth rebounded in November

According to the Construction Machinery Association, from January to November 2025, a total of 212,200 excavators were sold, up 16.7% year on year. Among them, domestic sales were 108,200 units, up 18.6% year on year, and export sales were 104,000 units, up 14.9% year on year. The bank saw that excavators maintained good growth resilience this year. Looking at a single month, in November 2025, China sold 20027 excavators, up 13.9% year on year. Among them, domestic sales volume was 9842 units, up 9.11% year on year; export volume was 10,185 units, up 18.8% year on year. Compared to October, the domestic and foreign sales growth rate rebounded in November, and industry sentiment picked up slightly, leading to short-term investment.

Domestic sales reflect structural improvements in the economy, while exports reflect an increase in the competitiveness of the industry in emerging countries

Looking at domestic sales, the structure of excavators in China is currently improving. The proportion of small excavators is still high, reflecting the demand for robots to replace people. The share of large excavations has increased, reflecting the increase in demand for large-scale projects and mines, while the proportion of intermediate excavations remains low, which also reflects the structural drag on real estate construction. In terms of exports, China's excavators are mainly sold to emerging countries, and urbanization construction in emerging countries continues. The bank believes that domestic OEMs are improving their competitiveness through deepening overseas markets, and their share is also continuing to increase. Taken together, the bank believes that the structural improvement in the economy is behind the recovery in growth in November.

Expectations for structural improvements are rising; it is recommended to focus on mid-market blue chips

The bank observed that the growth rate of the construction machinery category represented by excavators rebounded in November, and the growth rate reflected structural improvements in the economy. The bank is expected to bring about a decline in risk assessments on the denominator side of the DDM model, which is beneficial to investment opportunities for mid-market blue-chip companies. Judging from the improvements in construction machinery, as medium and large companies continue to cultivate overseas, the bank believes that medium and large companies will continue to benefit from overseas growth, but mid-market blue chips have greater opportunities for flexibility. It is recommended to focus on mid-cap blue-chip construction machinery companies.

Risk Alerts

Macroeconomic fluctuations have led to investment falling short of expectations, high overseas interest rates are dragging down demand, overseas trade frictions have intensified, and rising raw material prices have dragged down corporate profits