Everbright Securities: Covering established gold stores for the first time (06181) with a “buy” rating target price of HK$804.64
The Zhitong Finance App has learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that Laopu Gold (06181) is the pioneer and leader of the ancient French gold concept in China. It is positioned as high-end and has been deeply cultivated for a long time. Since 2023, the price of gold has accelerated, and consumer demand for gold investment preservation has increased, while ancient French gold contains restraint and collectible value. The popularity continues to rise, and the corresponding performance of old stores has continued to reach record highs. The comprehensive relative and absolute valuation method gave the company a target price of HK$804.64, and the target PE for 2025 to 2027 was 27/20/15 times, which covered the “buy” rating for the first time.
The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Ancient French gold continues to prosper, and jewellery consumption is getting younger
With the rapid rise in gold prices, overall consumption of gold jewelry is weak, while conceptual opportunities for segmented racetracks such as ancient French gold and Guochao have emerged, bucking the trend. In 2024, the market size of China's gold products was 568.8 billion yuan. Among them, the share of ancient gold increased from 4% in 2018 to 30% in 2023, and the scale was 157.3 billion yuan in 2023. The share is expected to reach 52% by 2028, and the scale will reach 421.4 billion yuan. Gold consumption is no longer limited to traditional occasions such as weddings, parent-children, and birthdays, but has become a fashion item worn by consumers. Gold consumption is becoming younger, and different gold product designs also carry various meanings, becoming an emotional carrier for consumers.
Differentiated entry into ancient law gold, leading design process
1) Traditional Volkswagen Gold brands mainly deal in ordinary gold products. Homogenized competition is serious. Old stores compete with traditional brands in a misplaced position. As of June 2025, the average coincidence rate between old store consumers and consumers of the five major luxury brands LV, Hermes, Cartier, Bulgari, and Tiffany reached 77.3%, and the number of members reached about 480,000. 2) After years of refinement, the old store has exquisite ancient gold craftsmanship, leading innovation. The brand moat is solid, and it is difficult for competitors to quickly replicate. Compared with peers, long-established products enjoy higher premiums and higher profitability than peers. The company's gross profit margin and net interest rate for the first half of 2025 were 38.1% and 18.4%.
Products lead aesthetic trends, endogenous and extrinsic collaborative growth
Based on the long-term accumulation of old stores on the ancient Fajin racetrack, under the catalyst of rising gold prices, old stores have moved from small to fine. They can break the circle with high quality mainly: 1) Product design revolves around classic Chinese and Western cultural elements, conveys beautiful meanings, and follows the Sino-Chinese trend, making gold a fashion item that consumers wear every day, leading to a younger generation of gold consumption; 2) The stores are concentrated in high-end business districts. The store display is exquisite, the image is in line with the luxury of ancient French gold, and although the number of stores is small, the number of stores is outstanding Out of the same store revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 They have all doubled or more; 3) The penetration of ancient French gold has been accelerated online. Through the drainage of single products with low total price and low weight, it has attracted young customers, achieved rapid growth, and can also feed back long-term offline development.
Profit forecasting and valuation
In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and achieved net profit of 1,473 billion yuan, an increase of 253.9% over the previous year; revenue and net profit to mother increased 251.0% and 285.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The bank expects the company's revenue from 2025 to 2027 to be 267.44/361.68/46.094 billion yuan, respectively, up 214.4%/35.2%/27.4% year on year; net profit to mother will be 47.63/65.41/8.449 billion yuan respectively, up 223.3%/37.3%/29.2% year on year, EPS will be 27.00/37.08/47.90 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 21/15/12 times.
Risk analysis: the risk of gold price fluctuations, increased competition in the industry, and falling short of expectations in store expansion.