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    HealthEquity (HQY) Is Down 5.5% After Raising 2025 Guidance And Stepping Up Buybacks – Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 08:18:10
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    • In early December 2025, HealthEquity, Inc. reported third-quarter revenue of US$322.16 million and net income of US$51.69 million, raised full-year guidance to revenue of about US$1.30–US$1.31 billion and net income of US$197–US$205 million, and confirmed recent share repurchases totaling US$92.88 million across two authorizations.
    • The company also signaled disciplined capital deployment by favoring high-bar, portfolio-style acquisitions while continuing buybacks and debt reduction, underscoring confidence in its business model and cash generation.
    • We’ll now explore how this stronger profit outlook, including higher full-year earnings guidance, reshapes HealthEquity’s existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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    HealthEquity Investment Narrative Recap

    To own HealthEquity, you need to believe that HSAs will keep gaining traction with employers and individuals, and that the company can convert that growth into solid, recurring earnings. The upgraded full year guidance and sharply higher quarterly profitability support the near term earnings catalyst, but do not remove key risks around interest rate sensitivity and potential softness in employment driven HSA account growth.

    The most relevant update is management’s new fiscal 2026 outlook for revenue of US$1.302 billion to US$1.312 billion and net income of US$197 million to US$205 million. This tighter and higher range, coming alongside continued buybacks, reinforces the earnings story that many investors are watching most closely, particularly as HealthEquity leans into a larger addressable HSA market and ongoing efficiency gains from its technology investments.

    But investors should also be aware that reliance on custodial cash interest income could become a headwind if...

    Read the full narrative on HealthEquity (it's free!)

    HealthEquity's narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $325.3 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how HealthEquity's forecasts yield a $122.36 fair value, a 31% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HQY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    HQY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span about US$97 to US$177, underscoring how far apart views on HealthEquity’s upside can be. Set against management’s higher earnings guidance and ongoing buybacks, these differing opinions invite you to weigh how interest rate sensitivity and HSA account growth could shape the company’s longer term performance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on HealthEquity - why the stock might be worth as much as 90% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own HealthEquity Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your HealthEquity research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free HealthEquity research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate HealthEquity's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.