Fed Guaranteed To Cut Interest Rates? Polymarket, Kalshi Bettors Expect Nearly 100% Chance As Jerome Powell Takes Center Stage

Cryptocurrency bettors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will enact a quarter-point interest rate cut at the end of its December meeting on Wednesday.

Prediction Markets Give A Thumbs Up

The odds of a 25 basis-point cut stood at 97% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, up from 70% only a month ago.

On the other hand, the probability that rates will remain unchanged from the current 3.75%-4.00% range has collapsed to 3%.

As of this writing, over $348 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market's resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee's statement following the Wednesday meeting.

See Also: The Fed Is Approaching A Turning Point And Data-Rich Week Will Decide Whether Rate Cuts Can Begin

Meanwhile, bettors on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction platform, saw a 96% chance of a 0.25% cut.

Notably, the CME FedWatch tracker currently estimates a lower probability, assigning an 89.9% chance of a rate cut,

What To Expect From Powell?

In addition to the expected cut, investors will likely keep an eye on the Fed's fresh economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks

Peter Williams, analyst at 22V Research, expects a divided Fed, saying Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will dissent by voting against a cut and Governor Stephen Miran will dissent dovishly by voting for a 50-basis-point reduction.

A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists anticipated a single quarter-point move, along with cautious guidance from Powell regarding 2026

Read Next: 

• Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2025 Jump To 51% As Fed Rate Cut Looms

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