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    Saab (OM:SAAB B) Is Up 8.8% After New Spain Simulation Deal And Lithuanian MSHORAD Order

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 11:22:43
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    • In early December 2025, Saab announced its first order from the Spanish Army for Individual Duel Simulation systems under a framework agreement with a potential maximum total value of about €34 million, while also confirming a third SEK 1.40 billion Mobile Short Range Air Defence (MSHORAD) order from Lithuania for delivery through 2030.
    • Together, these wins expand Saab’s live training footprint into Spain and deepen its European air defence role, reinforcing its position in high-tech defence solutions across both land training and short-range air defence.
    • We’ll now examine how Saab’s expanded European training presence and additional Lithuanian MSHORAD order influence the company’s broader investment narrative.

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    Saab Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Saab, you generally need to believe in sustained demand for European defence capability and Saab’s ability to convert its large backlog into profitable, cash-generative growth. The Spanish live training award and Lithuania’s third MSHORAD battery are incremental positives rather than game changers, supporting the near term order momentum catalyst but not fundamentally altering the key risk of exposure to shifting government budgets and export controls.

    The third Lithuanian MSHORAD order, worth about SEK 1.40 billion with deliveries through 2030, looks most relevant here because it aligns directly with Saab’s role in European air defence and reinforces one of the main catalysts: deeper integration into NATO-aligned ground based air defence networks that can lead to follow-on system, service, and upgrade work tied to long-running defence programs.

    Yet while these wins help diversify Saab’s customer base, investors should be aware that tighter future export controls could still...

    Read the full narrative on Saab (it's free!)

    Saab’s narrative projects SEK112.3 billion in revenue and SEK9.8 billion in earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Saab's forecasts yield a SEK481.00 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    OM:SAAB B 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    OM:SAAB B 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Fifteen Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Saab span from SEK 259 to SEK 641, underlining how far apart views on upside and downside can be. Set against this wide dispersion, Saab’s reliance on government defence budgets and export approvals reminds you that the company’s future performance is tightly linked to political and regulatory decisions in its key markets.

    Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Saab - why the stock might be worth as much as 25% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Saab Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Saab research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Saab research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Saab's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.