Bitcoin Braces For Fed Decision: These Are The Two Most Likely Scenarios

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading in a narrow range between $90,000 and $93,000 as traders brace for today's FOMC decision and Jerome Powell's press conference — a period that historically sparks sharp volatility.

What Happened: Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez noted that while markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-bps rate cut, Bitcoin's behavior around FOMC events in 2025 has been decisively negative.

Out of seven meetings this year, Bitcoin corrected after six of them, with drawdowns ranging from –6% to –29%. The only exception was a brief 15% rally in May.

Despite pre-meeting optimism often lifting prices into the announcement, post-FOMC action has consistently leaned bearish.

Also Read: Why Does Bitcoin Keep Dumping As Soon As The US Trading Session Starts?

What's Next: Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, told Benzinga that rising U.S. 10-year yields and weakness in the S&P 500 and gold indicate traders aren't expecting Powell to deliver strong reassurance.

A hawkish tone could dampen hopes of a holiday rally, especially with Bitcoin's momentum already weakening despite fresh accumulation by Michael Saylor's Strategy.

A year-end close below $100,000 is increasingly likely, Puckrin warned, but he emphasized this does not signal a new bear market.

He remains optimistic for 2026 predicting sentiment could shift rapidly if ultra-dovish Kevin Hassett replaces Powell at the Fed next year.

He also points to improving regulatory clarity from the pending market structure bill and growing institutional adoption as powerful long-term drivers.

In his words: "Bitcoin's new all-time high hasn't been cancelled — only delayed."

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