Daxin: Opportunities and challenges coexist in 2026, the Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge 28,200 points in the first half of the year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the 2026 Economic and Market Outlook published by Daxin Financial Group indicates that the global economy is seeking balance between policy adjustments and changes in market structure, and the 2026 market outlook presents multiple challenges and opportunities. The bank believes that Hong Kong's economic growth rate may be close to 2.4% next year, the Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge 28,200 points in the first half of the year, and Hong Kong property prices may rise by about 3%; mainland China will continue to seek new growth momentum.

Wen Jiawei, chief economist and strategist at Daxin Financial Group, said that Hong Kong stock valuations have recently rebounded, but fluctuations in peripheral markets may increase risk aversion. If the Hang Seng Index falls below 24,400 points in the short term, it may retest 23,500 points.

However, the southbound capital inflow continues and corporate performance improves. If market sentiment stabilizes, the Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge 28,200 points in the first half of next year. The outlook for innovative technology, high-yield stocks, and domestic consumer sectors may be relatively positive.

Wan Ka-wai said that Hong Kong's foreign trade is facing certain challenges. Furthermore, the job market may be undergoing structural adjustments. Consumer and tourism-related industries are under heavy pressure. Consumption prospects are still uncertain, while consumer goods prices are still under downward pressure.

On the mainland economy, Wen Jiawei believes that China and the US reached an agreement for the first time to reduce some tariffs, which is expected to help reduce uncertainty. However, it should be noted that the performance of the mainland real estate industry is currently relatively weak, and demand needs to be picked up. We can pay attention to whether any stimulus measures will be introduced in the future. The bank expects the mainland's economy to grow by 4.5% in 2026.