The 35 trading days that Guanghetong (00638) went to Hong Kong: Behind fluctuating stock prices, southbound capital continued to increase

Guanghetong (00638), which landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 22, 2025, broke the “Changhong” record of 16 consecutive Hong Kong IPOs recording a rise on the first day of listing with a decline of 11.72% on the first day of listing, and its stock price has gone through multiple cycles of breakouts, market protection, correction, ups and downs in less than two months.

However, behind the fluctuation in stock prices, one key sign cannot be ignored: Southbound Capital's shareholding ratio in Guanghetong has risen rapidly to 8.3% on December 8, showing that it is making great efforts to save. While the market is still digesting short-term fluctuations, the steady increase in southbound capital positions has laid the groundwork for the future market — Guanghetong's Hong Kong stock story may be at a turning point.

The closing of the dark market triggered the spread of panic

The break on the first day of Guanghetong's listing was actually already warned during the dark trading phase. In the dark market trading on October 21, Guanghetong's stock price showed a trend of opening high and moving low and closing down slightly. The highest increase in the dark market reached 16.3%, but then fluctuated and fell back, eventually closing below the issue price, falling slightly by 0.93%.

The closing of the dark market is not a good sign, because Guanghetong adopted a “mechanism B” distribution method. Since the implementation of the new Hong Kong stock IPO regulations on August 4, 2025, “Mechanism B” has become the mainstream choice for issuers. For example, out of 25 IPOs listed in October, 22 have adopted the “Mechanism B” scheme. However, the core of this plan is “fixed ratio, no return”, which can reduce the proportion of shares allocated to retail investors, thereby reducing selling pressure.

The introduction of “Mechanism B” can be said to have reshaped the new Hong Kong stock trading ecosystem. Although it is more difficult for retail investors to win, the share issuance rate of IPOs has been drastically reduced, and the money-making effect has increased significantly. For example, from August 4 to the day of Guanghetong's listing, 24 IPOs were listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; only two companies, Guanghetong and Oaks Electric, broke. There were 14 and 10 companies that rose 30% and 100% or more on the first day of listing during the period, respectively.

Under such a strong money-making effect, most of the IPOs using “Mechanism B” showed good gains during the dark trading phase. However, Guanghe Express, which also uses “Mechanism B” for distribution, has broken out. According to the Zhitong Finance App, there are two main factors. One is that Guanghetong is an A+H share, and its valuation is anchored by A-shares, which limits the market's hype space; the second is that under the strong money-making effect, the closing of Guanghetong's undercover market naturally triggered panic. Therefore, when it was officially listed and traded on October 22, investors chose to flee due to the psychological effect that the trend fell short of expectations, increasing selling pressure, causing Guanghetong to plummet 11.72% on the first day of listing.

The data can also confirm the hasty departure of investors. According to data from the Zhitong Finance App, on the first day of Guanghetong's listing, its actual turnover rate was as high as 41.29%, which meant that over 40% of investors chose to cut meat on the first day of listing, with a total sales amount of 307 million yuan.

Meanwhile, on the second day of Guanghetong's listing and trading, its stock price continued to drop 6.95%. This shows that there are still investors who can't stand losses and continue to cut meat and leave the market. However, it is worth noting that the actual turnover rate of Guanghetong on the second trading day was drastically reduced to 9.99%. This means that the selling pressure caused by panic has abated. After two consecutive days of sharp falls in stock prices, undetermined investors have left the market, and Guanghetong's stock price sell-off has been greatly reduced.

The main underwriter made up for the decline at an accelerated pace after the “protective plate”

After two days of rapid decline, Guanghetong's stock price operation entered the second phase, or “market protection,” starting on the third trading day. Thanks to the sharp release of pressure in the previous two trading days and the repurchase of shares by lead underwriter CITIC Lyon, Guanghetong's stock price surged 10.25% on the third trading day, with a turnover of HK$153 million. The actual turnover rate was 10.63%, a slight increase from the previous day. This indicates that some investors took advantage of this big rebound to cash out of the market.

Within the next 13 trading days, it was a day when the lead underwriter CITIC Lyon continued to “protect the market” by repurchasing shares. It can also be clearly seen from the market. Although Guanghetong's stock price fluctuated during this period, overall it showed obvious sideways characteristics. This is the most realistic picture of “protecting the market.”

In the “protection” phase of the lead underwriter, Guanghetong's stock price once rose as high as HK$20.66, which is only one step away from the issue price of HK$21.5. It also rose nearly 17% from the closing price of HK$17.66 on the second trading day of listing. However, since November 17, Guanghetong's stock price has officially entered the third stage, “making up for the decline.”

On the evening of November 16, Guanghetong issued an announcement stating that the stable price period for the company's global sale officially ended on November 16, 2025, and that the overallocation authorization was not exercised, and that the price stabilization operator CITIC Lyon and its affiliates purchased 2022,000 shares of Guanghetong H shares at a price between HK$17.3 and HK$21.5 during the price stabilization period, accounting for about 15% of the company's total global sale shares.

Although the biggest increase in the share price of Guanghetong H shares was nearly 17% during the price stabilization period, Guanghetong's A-share price continued to fall, with the biggest drop of nearly 12%. Therefore, after CITIC Lyon's “market protection” ended, Guanghetong H shares quickly made up for the decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30% within 7 trading days.

After quickly making up for the decline, Guanghetong H shares began stabilizing on November 25 and withdrew the “Doji Star”, indicating the exhaustion of “falling” power, and continued to strengthen with A-shares during the three trading days of November 26, 27, and 28.

Meanwhile, on December 1, the AI phone (Nubia M153 engineering prototype) equipped with a preview version of Doubao Mobile Assistant technology launched by ByteDance in collaboration with ZTE (000063.SZ) was officially released and limited sales began. Stimulated by this news, Guanghetong's A and H shares surged during the day. Among them, A shares rose 20CM and stopped, and H shares also surged 14.55%.

However, the reason behind the sharp rise in stock prices affected by this news is mainly because Guanghetong, as the world's leading provider of wireless communication modules and solutions, has long-term in-depth cooperation with ZTE. The market expects that the launch of its AI phones will inevitably require a large number of high-performance wireless communication modules. As a core supplier, Guanghetong is expected to directly benefit from the increase in orders.

Meanwhile, during the four trading days, it surged by more than 33%, to a maximum of HK$19.77, and Guanghetong's turnover rate also increased markedly. This shows that some of the funds that were locked up in the early stages and underwritten funds began to cash out profits after making huge profits in the short term, and Guanghetong's stock price also declined somewhat.

Southbound capital continues to increase; is a new round of growth not far away?

Looking back at the 35 trading days since Guanghetong went public in Hong Kong, its stock price trend can be described as a capital game where multiple factors are intertwined: the emotional release of fear and sell-off, the clandestine struggle of institutions to protect the market, and inertial adjustments to make up the technical decline are superimposed on layers and layers with the stimulus of the news surface to jointly outline a K-line chart of ups and downs.

However, behind the fluctuation in stock prices, there is one core variable that has never changed — southbound capital, known as the “mystery capital” by the market, has continued to increase its holdings of Guanghetong H shares, and has become the hidden main line throughout this fluctuation cycle.

The Zhitong Finance App discovered that since Guanghetong was officially included in Hong Kong Stock Connect on November 17, Southbound Capital has continued to increase its holdings of Guanghetong H shares. As of December 4, the number of Guanghetong H shares held by Nanxiang Capital had reached 124.47,200, and the shareholding ratio had soared to 9.2%.

Although some Southbound Capital achieved surpluses over the next few trading days, as of December 9, the number of Guanghetong shares held by Southbound Capital was still as high as 11.332 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 8.38%, and a market value of HK$194 million.

Furthermore, by comparing Guanghetong's stock price trend and the rate of increase in southbound capital holdings, as Guanghetong continues to accelerate and make up for the decline, southbound capital's holdings are increasing at the fastest rate. This shows that Southbound Capital believes that the value of Guanghetong's H shares is higher as it falls. However, after a wave of increases, Guanghetong's current H share price is still 41.9% off compared to the price of A-shares, and the discount margin is clearly high. This is probably also the key reason why Southbound capital is buying more and more when Guanghetong falls.

In fact, Southbound Capital's short-term rapid increase in Guanghetong's H shares not only is the market's intuitive recognition of its intrinsic value, but also implies a clear strategic layout — its position opening window closely coincides with the stage where Guanghetong accelerated its decline after listing. In this process, Southbound Capital was able to absorb funds intensively at low stock prices and accumulated a considerable holding ratio.

This operation is thought-provoking: is the continuous decline after breaking on the first day of listing paving the way for subsequent low levels to attract money? When market panic unleashed and stock prices entered the oversold range, Southbound Capital's “bucking the trend and increasing positions” was more like a carefully designed “chip collecting war.”

Today, as the size of positions has broken through key thresholds, the cost advantage of opening positions at a low level and concentration of positions may lay the groundwork for subsequent stock price recovery. Based on this, the market has reason to speculate that when the chips for Southbound Capital are in place, Guanghetong H shares may no longer be far from the beginning of a new upward cycle.