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    Turning Point Brands (TPB) Is Up 5.1% After Stoker’s-Fueled Margin Surge - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 15:19:15
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    • In the third quarter of 2025, Turning Point Brands reported gross profit of US$70.4 million, up 39.7% year over year, powered by very large growth in its Stoker’s segment and higher Modern Oral adoption.
    • The Stoker’s segment not only delivered an 80.8% surge in net sales but also lifted its gross margin by 440 basis points to 60.2%, underscoring how mix shift toward Modern Oral and higher-margin formats is reshaping TPB’s earnings profile.
    • We’ll now assess how Stoker’s sharply higher sales and margin expansion may influence Turning Point Brands’ longer-term earnings narrative and risks.

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    Turning Point Brands Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Turning Point Brands, you need to believe that Modern Oral and Stoker’s can keep shifting the mix toward higher-margin nicotine products while weathering regulation and category headwinds. The latest quarter’s strong Stoker’s-led profit lift supports the near term earnings catalyst of margin expansion, but it does not remove key risks around regulatory pressure on pouches and the rising SG&A burden tied to growth investments.

    The company’s recent Q3 2025 earnings release is the clearest companion to this story, with Stoker’s net sales up 80.8% and segment gross margin reaching 60.2%. That result reinforces the core catalyst of Modern Oral adoption, yet it also raises the stakes if stepped-up marketing, slotting fees, and sales force spending do not keep translating into profitable growth.

    But investors should also be aware that if Modern Oral growth disappoints, the increased sales and marketing spend could...

    Read the full narrative on Turning Point Brands (it's free!)

    Turning Point Brands' narrative projects $745.7 million revenue and $100.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 22.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $49.7 million earnings increase from $51.1 million today.

    Uncover how Turning Point Brands' forecasts yield a $118.75 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TPB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TPB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$54 to US$159 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that wide spread, the recent margin uplift tied to Modern Oral adoption highlights why some expect stronger earnings power, while others may focus more on regulatory and competitive risks as they weigh the company’s longer term performance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Turning Point Brands - why the stock might be worth as much as 55% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Turning Point Brands Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.