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    How Aflac’s Public Sector Health Accounts Push With Ameriflex (AFL) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 15:27:24
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    • In early December 2025, Ameriflex announced a partnership to become Aflac's administrative partner for consumer-directed health (CDH) services in the U.S. public sector, initially covering spending accounts such as Flexible Spending Accounts and Health Savings Accounts alongside Aflac's supplemental insurance offerings.
    • This move highlights Aflac's effort to broaden its role from purely supplemental insurance into integrated benefits administration, aiming to improve operational efficiency and the overall experience for public sector employers and employees.
    • Next, we'll examine how Aflac's move into public sector CDH administration with Ameriflex could influence its long-term investment narrative.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Aflac Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Aflac, you need to be comfortable with a mature insurer that is using product innovation, digital tools and partnerships to offset slow premium growth, particularly in Japan. The Ameriflex CDH partnership expands Aflac’s role with U.S. public sector clients, but its near term impact on the key catalyst of improving U.S. sales and the ongoing risk of shrinking Japanese premiums still looks modest.

    Among recent developments, the most directly relevant here is Aflac’s continued capital return, including a 5.2% dividend increase to US$0.61 per share for Q1 2026, which sits alongside the Ameriflex deal as the company balances reinvestment with sizeable buybacks and shareholder payouts while confronting soft net premiums and expense pressure in Japan.

    Yet while Aflac is broadening services in the U.S., investors should still be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Aflac (it's free!)

    Aflac's narrative projects $18.5 billion revenue and $3.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.1% yearly revenue growth and a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $2.4 billion today.

    Uncover how Aflac's forecasts yield a $111.38 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AFL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AFL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Aflac span roughly US$99 to US$239 per share, showing just how far apart individual views can be. You will want to weigh those against the reliance on Japan premiums and currency exposure that still shapes expectations for Aflac’s long term performance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Aflac - why the stock might be worth 9% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Aflac Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Aflac research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Aflac research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Aflac's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.