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    How an Activist-Driven North American Spin-Off Plan At Barrick (TSX:ABX) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 20:12:38
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    • On December 7, 2025, Barrick Gold Corporation said its board, under pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, had approved exploring a spin-off of its premier North American mining operations into a separately listed “NewCo” to tackle a valuation gap and reduce geopolitical exposure.
    • This move, coming alongside recent asset sales in Côte d'Ivoire and a refreshed board with a new Lead Independent Director, signals a sharper focus on core, lower-risk assets that could reshape how investors assess Barrick’s portfolio quality and risk profile.
    • We’ll now examine how the activist-driven plan to spin off Barrick’s premier North American mines could reshape its investment narrative.

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    Barrick Mining Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Barrick today, you need to believe it can keep compounding value from large, long-life gold and copper assets while tightening its focus on lower risk jurisdictions. The proposed spin-off of premier North American mines could become a key short term catalyst if it helps close the valuation gap, but it may also concentrate remaining geopolitical and execution risks in the legacy business.

    The announcement that Barrick will explore spinning off its top North American operations into a “NewCo” sits squarely against its long term catalyst of emphasizing Tier 1 assets in stable jurisdictions. If this separation proceeds, investors will likely reassess how much risk is tied to African and Middle Eastern mines versus the more mature, lower risk portfolio in North America.

    Yet investors should be aware that while the North American spin-off aims to reduce geopolitical exposure, unresolved country risk around assets like Loulo-Gounkoto and other operations in Africa and the Middle East could still...

    Read the full narrative on Barrick Mining (it's free!)

    Barrick Mining’s narrative projects $19.4 billion revenue and $5.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 11.9% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $2.2 billion earnings increase from $2.8 billion today.

    Uncover how Barrick Mining's forecasts yield a CA$62.28 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSX:ABX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSX:ABX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Barrick’s fair value anywhere between CA$30.55 and CA$181.86, reflecting sharply different expectations. As you weigh those views against the potential impact of a North American spin-off on Barrick’s risk profile and earnings mix, it is worth exploring several of these alternative perspectives before forming your own stance.

    Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Barrick Mining - why the stock might be worth 46% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Barrick Mining Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.