Will Night Watch’s Offshore Exit and Spending Delays Reset Tidewater’s (TDW) Long-Term Project Narrative?

• Night Watch Investment Management previously exited its position in Tidewater Inc. after an unexpected pause in offshore energy infrastructure spending that began in 2024 and is now expected to persist until at least 2027.
• The decision, driven by sector-wide spending trends rather than company-specific issues, highlights how institutional sentiment around offshore project timing can influence perceptions of Tidewater’s long-term prospects.
• Next, we’ll examine how Night Watch’s exit, tied to delayed offshore spending, interacts with Tidewater’s existing investment narrative and expectations.

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Tidewater Investment Narrative Recap

To own Tidewater, you generally need to believe that offshore energy activity will remain resilient enough to support demand for its vessels and margins over time. Night Watch’s exit, driven by expectations of a multi‑year pause in offshore spending, directly touches the biggest near term risk: extended vessel idleness and softer utilization. For now, Tidewater’s recent share price performance suggests this fund’s move has not materially shifted the main short term catalyst, which remains operational and financial execution against guidance.

The most relevant recent announcement in this context is Tidewater’s November 2025 guidance update, which reaffirmed 2025 revenue of US$1.33 billion to US$1.35 billion and margin expectations of 49% to 50%. Keeping both 2025 and 2026 margin ranges intact, even as some institutions turn cautious on offshore timing, puts the focus squarely on whether Tidewater can continue to convert its contracted work into stable earnings despite sector wide spending uncertainty.

Yet while Tidewater’s guidance looks steady, investors should be aware that prolonged softness in global offshore demand, especially if customers keep delaying committed projects, could...

Read the full narrative on Tidewater (it's free!)

Tidewater's narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $306.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $107.6 million earnings increase from $198.9 million today.

Uncover how Tidewater's forecasts yield a $60.00 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Tidewater’s fair value between US$36.91 and US$187.38, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. You should weigh these views against the risk that offshore demand remains muted longer than expected, since that could influence utilization, margins and how Tidewater’s performance actually evolves.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Tidewater - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Tidewater Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tidewater research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tidewater research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tidewater's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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