YE DIGITAL's (TSE:2354) three-year earnings growth trails the 24% YoY shareholder returns
Thanks in no small measure to Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, it's easy buy a low cost index fund, which should provide the average market return. But you can make better returns by buying undervalued shares. To wit, YE DIGITAL Corporation (TSE:2354) shares are up 77% in three years, besting the market return. In contrast, the stock is actually down 1.1% in the last year, suggesting a lack of positive momentum.
The past week has proven to be lucrative for YE DIGITAL investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During three years of share price growth, YE DIGITAL achieved compound earnings per share growth of 19% per year. We note that the 21% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, YE DIGITAL's TSR for the last 3 years was 90%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
YE DIGITAL shareholders gained a total return of 2.0% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 1.6% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for YE DIGITAL (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.