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    Raised 2026 Royalty Outlook and $1 Billion Plan Could Be A Game Changer For Ligand (LGND)

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 22:21:47
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    • In December 2025, Ligand Pharmaceuticals issued 2026 guidance calling for total revenue of US$245 million to US$285 million, including US$200 million to US$225 million in royalty revenue, US$35 million to US$40 million in Captisol sales, and US$10 million to US$20 million in contract revenue.
    • The company also raised its 5‑year royalty receipt outlook, highlighting products such as Filspari, Ohtuvayre, and Zelsuvmi and outlining plans to deploy up to US$1.00 billion in capital to support long-term royalty growth.
    • We’ll now explore how Ligand’s higher 2026 royalty guidance and expanded five-year outlook may reshape its multi-year earnings power narrative.

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    Ligand Pharmaceuticals Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Ligand Pharmaceuticals, you need to believe in the durability and expansion of its royalty-based model, as new partner drugs move from launch to meaningful sales. The higher 2026 revenue and royalty guidance reinforces that narrative but does not fundamentally change the key near term swing factor, which is execution and uptake across a concentrated set of partnered assets. That same concentration remains the biggest risk, because setbacks in one or two lead programs could still weigh heavily on results.

    Among recent announcements, the November 2025 upgrade to full year 2025 guidance ties in closely with the new 2026 outlook, because it showed improving royalty, Captisol and contract revenue trends even before management raised its five year royalty receipt targets. For investors tracking catalysts, the progression from higher 2025 guidance to a larger 2026 royalty mix sharpens the focus on how quickly products like Filspari, Ohtuvayre and Zelsuvmi can build, and how exposed Ligand remains if that ramp is slower or more volatile than expected.

    Yet behind the stronger guidance, investors should be aware of how concentrated royalty streams can magnify...

    Read the full narrative on Ligand Pharmaceuticals (it's free!)

    Ligand Pharmaceuticals' narrative projects $315.6 million revenue and $121.1 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Ligand Pharmaceuticals' forecasts yield a $237.50 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LGND 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LGND 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members place Ligand’s fair value between US$38.77 and US$288.68 across 3 independent views, showing very different expectations. When you set that beside Ligand’s heavier reliance on a small group of royalty assets, it underlines why many market participants are weighing concentration risk so carefully and why exploring several viewpoints can be useful.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ligand Pharmaceuticals - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Ligand Pharmaceuticals Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.