Up 50% in 2025, should you buy Harvey Norman shares before Christmas?

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) electronics and home furnishings retail stock closed yesterday trading for $7.02. During the Thursday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $7.07 apiece, up 0.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.

Taking a step back, shares have strongly outperformed in 2025, gaining 50.4% compared to the 5.3% year-to-date gains delivered by the benchmark index.

Atop those capital gains, Harvey Norman shares also trade on a 3.8% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

So, on the heels of such a strong year, is the ASX 200 retail stock still a good buy today?

Below, we look at two opposing answers to that potentially lucrative question (courtesy of The Bull).

The sell-side analysis

Kicking off with the sell side, we turn to Family Financial Solutions' Jabin Hallihan.

"The Australian retailer operates a mix of company-owned stores and franchises," said Hallihan, who has a sell recommendation on Harvey Norman shares. "It also operates in New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia and Europe."

In a nod to the company's revenue growth, he noted, "Aggregates sales revenue, excluding Australian franchisees, rose 9.1% between July 1 and November 20 when compared to the prior corresponding period."

But Hallihan believes the Harvey Norman share price has risen too high.

"Our issue is valuation," he said.

Hallihan concluded:

While Harvey Norman benefits from a solid balance sheet and property assets, its shares on December 4 were trading above our fair value estimate of $5.50 after a 12% upgrade. The shares look expensive relative to fundamentals. We believe competition will limit margin expansion.

Which brings us to…

The buy case for Harvey Norman shares

Catapult Wealth's Blake Halligan has a more optimistic outlook on the ASX 200 retail stock.

"Improving consumer sentiment favours this retail giant leading into the usually strong Christmas trading period," said Halligan, who has a buy rating on Harvey Norman shares.

Part of his bullishness stems from the rapid rise of AI-enabled products, which could spur sales growth.

"Electronics and furniture are expected to perform well, particularly in artificial intelligence-related products amid strong interest in the latest iPhone," Halligan said.

He concluded:

HVN's franchising operations are enjoying robust pre-tax margins as costs remain well contained compared to last year. Aggregate sales for Australian franchisees increased 6.5% between July 1 and November 20, 2025, when compared to the prior corresponding period.

The post Up 50% in 2025, should you buy Harvey Norman shares before Christmas? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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